For the past several days I’ve been focusing a lot on the weekend storm system that’s expected to deepen well into the 970s over Iceland before taking aim at the UK. Before that system makes it down here, temperatures will rise considerably across the UK as high pressure builds in.

Widespread sunshine, a decent ridge and of course the strongest sun of the year will help lift surface readings well into the 20s but it’s as that low gathers to our north and it’s front edges closer, winds will pick up out of the SW and with sunshine, expect potentially the warmest air to date. Highs in the Southeast of England may approach 29C by Thursday. The warmest for NI and Scotland is likely to be Tuesday, possibly Wednesday depending on the timing of cloud and some rain.

Here is the view I’m getting this morning with that high now in control!!

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The 500mb height anomalies off the ECMWF depicts well the upper air pattern through the rather changeable upcoming 7 days. Yes we have high pressure giving way to low pressure by the end of the week but as explained in this morning’s video, cast your eyes west out over the Atlantic and note the strong positive, that high should build in on the backside of the Icelandic bomb.

Check out that strong POSITIVE coming back by day 10. Long way off of course but makes good sense given pattern and what we’ve seen thus far.

GFS ensemble 500mb height anomalies (7-day mean) supports the return of ridging week 2 and beyond.

7-14 day

9-16 day

The CFSv2 is trending nicely with a firm UK ridge through the 2nd half of July…

Be sure to check out today’s video for more!

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