The highly progressive pattern with plentiful rain from the Rockies east will continue. Systems pushing into the Pacific Northwest will trim back any heat and humidity from hitting and holding across the central and northern US.

Here’s the QPF rains through the next 7 days.

Is model seeing mischief near Florida in the 7-10 day?

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Here’s the latest ECMWF 500mb height anomalies and you can see the systems pushing into the PNW and carving out the trough in the West. This pumps the heat and humidity up into the ‘wet zone’ of the country but then through a 72 to 120 hour period, that trough progresses east, cutting off the hot, humid surge.

72 hrs

By 120 hrs or Tue of next week, note ridging returns to the PNW while the trough and pretty low heights sit over the Dakotas and Minnesota but never penetrate the Southern Plains as the ridge is too strong. Looks like a hot run up to Independence Day for both coasts, chilly in the N Plains.

By Independence Day, that trough has kicked the heat and humidity out of the Northeast as the N Plains trough slides east while ridging returns to the West Coast. Also notice the negative anomaly on the FL Panhandle…

At 204 hours the Western ridge is pushing into the Plains while a new system enters the PNW. Trough in the Northeast while that system the model is sniffing out near Florida sits off the South Carolina coast.

Here’s the surface chart regarding that surface feature in and around Florida late next week.

GFS

GFS has secondary feature coming up from W Gulf towards South Texas.

This fits with the increase ‘convective potential’ over the West Atlantic basin as the MJO becomes favourable. Trough splits in this active, progressive pattern will need to be closely watched over the next 10 days.

 

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