We’re now getting that summertime heat across the Southern Tier of the nation but cooler air continues to filter out of Canada, holding temps at or slightly below normal but as we head towards the July 4th weekend, indications are there, that heat will begin to spread north and east out of Texas.

Week 1 of the CFSv2 shows a lot of cool across the country but week 2 into 3 and 4 shows the warmer than normal spreading.

More system pushing into the Pacific Northwest keeps things cool and unsettled here, holding temperatures near normal and at times a little below normal over the Desert Southwest.

Notice it never gets overpoweringly warm or hot and when it does warm in the Midwest and East like it should do in the coming weeks, there is some rather chilly air dropping into the N Rockies. No full scale, coast to coast ridge!

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An important aspect to look at when talking temperatures is soil moisture content and the below chart gives you a pretty good indication as to how and where the ground is wet. Where it’s wet, the atmosphere likes to rain and where dry, it likes to get hot. Obviously it’s summer and heat will cover these wet areas (in not too distant future) but it simply won’t get AS hot as it could have been if the ground was drier and more energy from the sun could go into heating, not evaporating.

I’ve been harping on for a considerable amount of time now about the amount of rain and coverage across the US as we progress through summer into fall. The CFSv2 continues to show the wet and therefore cool pattern through pretty much the remainder of this year.

You can see why it’s at or below normal temperaturewise across most of the country when you’ve widespread rains (below) indicative of the El Nino coming on.

While the CFSv2 looks correct with the cool summer and fall, what’s very interesting is it’s WARM idea for winter 2014-15 which I disagree with. The reason I don’t buy this is because of the weak to moderate and more importantly, CENTRAL based El Nino. You do not get a coast to coast warm winter when you a modoki style nino in a cold PDO/temporary cold AMO.

This doesn’t add up given this.

Remember, it’s the same model.

The only way the above temperature chart for winter would be remotely correct, would be if you take the warmest waters in the equatorial Pacific and push it up against the South America coast which in turn would likely correlate to a US ridge.

Even now, the model shows the peaking of the warmth off South America and from here on, we see a decrease, not increase in SST’s.

Here’s the CFSv2 forecast for Nino region 1.2 (just off South America). Signs are there, by the very model showing a WARM US winter of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Nino 3.4 (central) shows warming but notice it never even gets to 1.5F.

Jamstec has a similar SST profile to the CFSv2 but notice it has a very different temperature chart.

I’ve showed you this before already but will show again. It’s very interesting to see the model predicting ABOVE normal arctic sea ice this summer. Lot’s of mention about how below normal it’s been in recent years during summer but I wonder how much attention this will get if it happens?

Notice that it goes below normal into winter. Why? Because the modelling is likely seeing warmer than normal temps. Why might that be? Northern blocking which sends all the cold into the mid-latitudes of Europe and North America.

A larger ice field in the arctic ocean is likely to support some very cold air masses next winter which could bring tough times to the Lower 48 and Europe as well as parts of Asia.

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