The much anticipated breakdown in our fine, dry and warm pattern over W Europe has begun. This morning is our first damp one here and though many will enjoy another dry, fairly warm day, the trend for damp will spread in the coming 24 to 36 hours as low pressure moves in and takes charge for the late week/weekend period.

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All models are in good agreement about a southern UK trough that will sit in place well into next week.

ECMWF 3-10 day 500mb height anomalies (7-day mean)

GFS Ensemble

0-7 day

7-14

The good news is that there are positive signs of the ridge coming back in from the Atlantic around the 4th or 5th of July onwards.

Here’s the GFS ensemble 9-16 day.

NAO also shows a positive into July.

CFSv2 weeklies shows ridging over the UK with a negative NAO into July. A good sign for the UK and west of the continent.

The GFS meteogram for Dublin shows the downward trend in pressure and temperature with an increase in rainfall in the upcoming 8 days but notice it shows a pressure rise, temperature rise as well as reduction in rainfall in the 9-15 day.

Day 1-8

Day 9-15

To me, quite sufficient guidance supporting the return of better weather once again towards the end of July’s opening week.

See today’s video for more!

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