Apologies for no post yesterday. I’ve had internet connection issues.

While it gets summer hot this weekend across the Southern Tier, as we go forward, it looks like the models are showing a pretty warm start to July for the East. However, one should use caution because as most of us which follow the pattern knows, there’s been a lot of wet weather in recent months over the central part of the country and this will have impact on temperatures.

Here’s the GFS Ens 500mb height anomalies for week 2 (7-14 day)

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The 9-16 day period continues with a ridge in the east.

Interesting when looking at the GFS Ens week 2 temp anomalies. It shows above normal in both the West and East as you’d expect but notice it doesn’t see this warmth, right where there’s been and continues to be a lot of rainfall.

The day 3-10 0ff the ECMWF, like the GFS Ens shows that positive poking into the Northeast so the models are in good agreement about the coming heat.

As we head towards the end of June into early July, the CFSv2 shows heat building over the central part of the country then spreads eastward.

While it may be the case and I am wrong but I am a little suspicious about where the same model has the heat in July. Close to where the ground is pretty wet and we’ve seen the most rain.

CFSv2 for July

Rain past 30 days

Heat will cover even the wettest areas this summer, since it is summer obviously, however, I think any heat which does cover the wetter areas will be short lived.

When looking at the MJO, it’s showing phase 6 which is cool for July. So, we’ve got a fight here between the natural building of heat against the wet ground feedback and MJO.

As for the El Nino, well models continue to show the weak to moderate as for we forward.

CFSv2 Nino 1.2 takes an early peak (around now) just beyond 1.5 then it dives.

CFSv2 Nino 3.4 never gets it to 1.5. For a super nino, it would need to go beyond 2 and push 3.

CFSv2 water temps look like this.

Warmest waters are up against South America in July.

By September, the warmest water is already shifting westward with cooling off SA.

By December, the model has that modoki look.

This is a cold signal next winter for the eastern US. Had that warm water been up against SA in December like it is suppose to be in July then that may well have suggested a mild winter.

Jamstec too shows warmest waters over the central Pacific next winter.

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