Despite the cool down across particularly the northern UK, high pressure does look to be holding on enough that it remains largely fine, dry and sunny. Low pressure at the base of the eastern trough has caused significant flooding rains across parts of the Balkans in the last 24-36 hours but it appears change is coming in the next 1-2 week range.

As stated already, the weekend is looking good for much of Ireland, UK, low countries into Denmark and down through France as high pressure remains dominant. It remains more unsettled up over Scandinavia as well as Iberia where low pressure is in control.

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Here’s the GFS surface through this weekend.

Looks like a front with more rain associated with it may try to drop into far northern Scotland Monday.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday, while heights remain above 1020mb, the model definitely sees a front but far strong or weak that will be remains to be seen. It may be weak enough that we get very little from it and with potential for heights to rebuild towards the end of next week, it may well be a predominantly fine, largely dry and settled week once again.

QPF shows little rain for the UK through the next 10 days but note points further south get quite the soaking, fits perfectly with the original June precip forecast off the CFSv2. Although in saying that, Scandinavia appears wetter than expected.

Both ECMWF and GFS take an Atlantic low close to the Ireland late week. This would be a game changer as we approach the closing days of the month but could pump the ridge ahead of it initially, bringing a resurge of warmth up into Ireland, UK and western mainland.

Paris Meteogram (note a rise then fall in temps)

Day 1-8

9-15

Check out the difference in Moscow compared to May and early June when the high was dominant!

Moscow Meteogram

Day 1-8

Notice in the 9-15 day, temperatures rise. This is the model seeing that western trough/eastern ridge scenario for early July.

Interestingly, here’s the latest GFS ensemble in the 7-16 day 500mb height anomalies.

Around the 27th, 28th, both models take a low out of the Bay of Biscay up towards the English Channel but it looks like a high still wants to remain dominant.

In tomorrow’s post we’re going to take a look at what the models are showing into autumn and next winter… Stay tuned and have a great day.

See video for more!

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