High pressure will be strongest with a 1032 core positioned just NW or Ireland, supporting a sun/cloud mix through the first half of the new working week.

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Temperatures will be comfortable, not particularly cool, nor unusually warm. Where the sun stays out longest (mainly western areas), expect temps to climb into the 20-24C range. These warm numbers include Scotland and Northern Ireland where the core is closest and in fact the warmest temps are likely to be found here, today through Wednesday or Thursday but models agree on a westward shift and gradual weakening of this high later on.

By Friday and on into the weekend, it appears a boundary separating cooler, more unsettled weather over Scandinavia and the settled high will push west from the near continent over the UK. This will bring a cooler northerly air flow as well as an increase in precipitation. The GFS brings pretty heavy rain into central and southwest areas this weekend into early next week.

Here’s the latest GFS surface charts through the next 7-8 days.

24 hrs

48 hrs

72 hrs

96 hrs

120 hrs

144 hrs

168 hrs

192 hrs

GFS 7-day mean 500mb heights.

0-7 day.

7-14

Side note relating to yesterday’s post.

I showed you the below chart which shows the CFSv2 putting arctic sea ice above normal this summer.

The significance of this is two fold. Not only would it be the first time above normal since 1996 (past winter was America’s coldest since, guess… 1996). This may have important consequences next winter!

A strong reason behind ‘less melt’ this summer is likely down to the colder AMO signal this year which we haven’t seen since 1996. The warm AMO tends to control the amount of arctic sea ice loss during summer. Colder signal leads to less melt. The opposite of recent years.

Check out the current SST’s.

A lot of heat around the UK and Europe which should lead to stronger than normal pressure in the means this summer. Had the central North Atlantic been warm, I recon this would have been a wet, much more disappointing summer.

Solar cycle 24 has also peaked (Feb 14) and so it’s heading down. Factor this with increased volcanic activity in the tropics and we should see increased northern blocking next winter and not just in the North Pacific like last year but in the Atlantic too. Should see more favourable QBO conditions for sudden stratospheric warming events and a colder Western Europe winter in 2014-15.

See today’s video for more!

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