We have the type of pattern right now across the continent in which low pressure sits pretty much stuck off the SW coast of Ireland and NW of Portugal, held in place by a dominant and sprawling upper level ridge sitting over most of Europe.

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While central, eastern and northern parts of the continent see much warmer, more summer-like conditions with Middle East origin heat streaming up through Moscow towards St Petersburg and Helsinki, the south/Med Sea region remains much more unsettled compared to normal. That’s thanks to the strongest heights and ridge core centred further north compared to normal, up over the Baltic Sea.

As for the UK, we sit in between the two contrasting heights, thus we remain stuck in a largely UNSETTLED pattern with fronts managing to cross our shores but once they reach the near continent (Netherlands, Denmark into Scandinavia) they weaken. I don’t see much change in the 1-2 days of sun followed by rain or showers. Until that ridge over the continent backs WSW, we remain in the very back and fourth regime between high and low pressure.

At least the mean low is enough to our SW that ridging can make an appearance and when unsettled with low pressure overhead, we do still get sun. The positioning of the low and high also means we get a predominantly SSE air flow which means we’re likely to stay at or above normal. It’s unsettled on the other side of the North Sea and Channel too but here, pressures tend to be stronger, so it’s often brighter and warmer from France up through the Low Countries into Denmark. The focus of real heat and significantly above normal temps is really from Germany north and east.

As you can see, we’ve dealing with a negative NAO, explaining the low positioned near the Azores and ridge up over the Baltic Sea.

As you can see, the next 10 days shows little change as high gives way to lower pressure with the UK stuck in between. Notice in the 10-14 day, ridging appears to build over the UK more.

CFSv2 shows no real sign of any UK centred ridge over the next 2-4 weeks.

GFS ensemble however disagrees, it shows ridging building more over the UK, week 2 into 3 (7 through 16 day), kicking the trough out over the central N Atlantic.

Ridge builds in further day 9-16

By no means is this pattern a washout. My suspicion is that as summer progresses, this stuck pattern will shift, hopefully with the ridge, not trough becoming more of a UK player as we push towards late June into July.

Remember the main focus in this summer’s forecast was always for a BACK AND FOURTH but I never expected it to be a season with neither prolonged wet spells, nor hot spells. It’s too wet here in the UK but dry enough over the near continent for that mean ridge to visit us periodically and that should be the case looking down the road.

GFS meteograms through the next 16 days.

DUBLIN

Day 1-8

9-15

AMSTERDAM

Day 1-8

9-15

MOSCOW

Day 1-8

9-15

This week looks to be Moscow’s warmest yet with highs pushing the 32C mark. Notice how temps through the next 15 days hold stay at between 27-32C. There’s a constant flow of air streaming all the way from Arabia, keeping temps in the Russia capital and areas outwith, a solid 8-12C above normal.

The real heat surge is with the ridge over central and eastern areas (result of the digging trough off Ireland) whereas the ‘warm surge’ further west from the western Med up to the UK is the result of southerly winds blowing ahead of the low out at sea.

Jamstec (Japanese tropical research model) continues to show a warm UK and Europe summer.

Cold winter in 2014-15?

The reason why winter here in W Europe could be rather different compared to last is the QBO last winter, favoured blocking over the N Pacific but NOT the Atlantic. This year, with a LOWER SOLAR and increase in VOLCANIC, we should see an increase potential for Greenland blocking.

The peaking of the albeit, weak solar cycle 24, likely thwarted our winter last year but with a reduction and downward trend in solar activity, this should favour more easterly QBO and more sudden stratospheric warming events.

The likely weak to moderate and CENTRAL based El Nino this upcoming winter, should also favour N Atlantic/Greenland blocking.

As you can see, the solar cycle peaked late last winter and is heading DOWN.

Only issue I have is that it may be hard to compare with 2009 which saw the bottoming out of the solar minimum, it wasn’t coming off a max. Something which must be considered.

The eruption of Indonesia’s Mount Sangeang Api

But with a downward trend in a weak solar cycle, a central Pacific based El Nino and large volcanic eruptions going off in the tropics, the upcoming winter is well worth watching. More later!

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