We have a busy week of weather coming up with a system crossing the country. The SPC has issued a fairly large ‘moderate risk’ area for severe weather tomorrow over the Midwest and so we’ll need to watch this situation closely in the next 2-3 days.

Of course the tropics appear to be stirring southwest of Mexico with a 90% chance for development and a 20% chance in the Bay of Campeche.

Between the likely severe weather producer as well as some sort of system developing and lifting north out of the Gulf of Mexico, there’s a lot of rain to come in the next 7 days.

 

Yesterday I posted on the Great Lake ice and it’s survival up till June 1st.

Here was some amazing images captured looking out over L Superior from Marquette, MI yesterday.

Mistakenly, I believed yesterday’s June 1st ice was a first but in fact there was ice on Lake Superior back on June 1, 1996.

SEE TODAY’S VIDEO!

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As well as the big rains, the big story this week will be the severe weather outlook coming tomorrow and Wednesday all thanks to a low crossing from the West into the central Plains.

Here’s the 500mb chart off the ECMWF at 36 hours.

48 hour surface

As hot and cool, wet and dry come together, the SPC has issued a large ‘moderate risk area’ over the central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Wednesday.

Tropical Stirrings

East Pacific

Gulf of Mexico

10-Day QPF suggests 1-2 FEET of rain for southern Mexico and Central America

While the NHC has a high, 80% probability of development with the system off southwest Mexico, there is a much lower 20% of development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico within the next 5-7 days.

Below normal SST’s and steer over the GOA will keeps any Atlantic development fairly low but, the GFS still shows something crossing Florida early next week and although slower, so too does the ECMWF.

Notice the large area of below normal heights from the east Pacific across Mexico/Central America into the Gulf of Mexico. Eventually the below normal height field shifts into the GOA and concentrates, suggesting something tires to get it’s act together.

GFS surface

MJO is currently in phase 2 which favours east Pacific/Gulf of Mexico development as well as cool and wet conditions over much of the US.

GFS ensemble 7-day 500mb height anomalies show below normal heights widely, indicative of the cool phase 2 of the MJO above.

Day 1-7

7-14

Be sure to check out today’s video.

More tomorrow. Have a great night.

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Tags: great lakes ice, hurricane season, severe weather, tornadoes, Tropical weather