Lot’s of fun and games with the upper low that’s currently over Southern California.

While parts of SoCal saw flooding downpours and dramatic lightning displays, even hail and funnels, this was the scene yesterday afternoon up at Big Bear Mountain. I wonder when the last time there was snow in the mountains of SoCal this late in May?

The Palmdale-Lancaster area was hit hard by flooding after strong storms pushed through (below) but in the last 36 hours there has been quite widespread shower activity throughout Southern California underneath the upper low. That upper low will take it’s sweet old time crossing the Southwest this weekend but eventually gets out over Texas Mon-Tue of next week.

Here was yesterday afternoon around the Palmdale area.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

It’s the slow movement of this upper system, embedded within a slack wind field (upper ridge) that will make for the big rains on the Southern Plains over the next 6-7 days.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb charts through the next 96 hours and note the upper low really only goes from SoCal to Texas.

As a result, these are the expected rain totals off the QPF.

That upper low will also keep up the SLIGHT severe risk through the weekend.

Sat

Sun

Looks like we have a predominantly positive height field through the next 16 days across the country with some troughiness coming back onto the West Coast as well as the Northeast.

CFSv2: Typical summer warmth comes then gets kicked out week 3-4. Notice in week 1-2, where there’s those greens ‘cooler than normal’, that’s where the model is seeing it rain.

As I posted yesterday, we need to keep a close eye on some sort of early development off Florida in the first week of June. The GFS has kinda lost the system it had moving into the Sunshine state from the Caribbean yesterday, but I suspect modelling will go back and forth on this.

CFSv2 sure is WET for Florida in June. To me, this is the model sniffing something tropical out. That system may also make for big eastern rains too!

Be sure to check out today’s video.

NO post tomorrow but will have the usual updates Sunday! Have a great Memorial Day weekend.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Tags: california flooding, california weather, texas drought, texas rain