It’s a tricky bank holiday weekend outlook with sunshine and showers on the whole. Pinpointing where those showers will be at any given time is and will be near impossible. I’ve been asked by several, what will be the weekend be like. My simple answer, expect ‘sunshine and showers’ and by no means a washout. Where the sun shines and you get out of the breeze, it will feel pleasantly warm.

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With the large blocking high over Russia, this keeps the lows spiralling around a trough over western Europe, in somewhat of a holding pattern as their unable to go east. Each low simply reinforces the shower activity with embedded areas of more organised rain

QPF total precip through the next 7 days.

The heat remains strong the further east you head over the continent.

Current 500mb pattern.

Here’s the anomaly. Beneath the strong positive, it’s abnormally warm and beneath the negative, particularly down over Iberia, it’s cooler than normal.

Here’s a look at the ECMWF 500mb heights through the next 7 days and notice the eastern ridge begins to weaken which means a somewhat more elongated trough but towards the second half of next week, we find ourselves in a fairly complex, blocky setup in which upper lows appear to become cut off to the south of the UK across to Germany.

The GFS ensemble has a flatter but slightly negative NAO index which coincides with the ECMWF solution through next week.

The ECMWF 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies show the weakening and westward progression of the ridge across Scandinavia towards the UK, locking in the upper low over Iberia which keeps things cooler and more unsettled down here in the medium range.

The GFS ensembles is similar.

No change in CFSv2 temps and precip for June. Warmer, drier than normal for UK and west!

Be sure to check out today’s video.

NO post tomorrow but will have full updates as normal Sunday. Will have a look at other things on Sunday including the solar cycle etc.

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