Rather than the huge meridional pattern with record heat on one side, flooding rain on the other with snow and record cold in between, we have a much broader positive height field across the nation. A little more typical of late May, however the one big fly in the ointment is the undercutting trough that’s now diving into the Southwest bringing showers to California, cooler temps and of course the return of the marine layer.

Rather than upper 90s to 100 in LA, the next couple of afternoons present upper 60s to around 70 which of course is below normal. Things return to above normal territory by this weekend as heights build from the Pacific once again.

That trough is generated another day of severe weather and spectacular supercell structures out on the Plains.

Here’s the current 500mb setup.

Below is today’s severe threat from the SPC. We’re seeing some great photos coming out of hail covered highways in and around Denver right now.

Tomorrow’s threat.

Here’s the 7-mean 500mb height anomaly off the GFS ens. Note the negative over the Southwest but ridge covering much of the country. The severe threat is now largely west-east.

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7-14 day shows more trough on the West Coast with core of the positive up towards the Great Lakes.

The CFSv2 shows warmth week 1-2 but cooler week 3-4.

A lot of rain is coming to the Plains through the upcoming 7 days.

Be sure to check out yesterday’s post on El Nino and potential beneficial rainfall over the next 6 months.

Just 11 days till meteorological summer begins and there’s still 2.4% ice on the Great Lakes.

6.6% on Superior.

Interesting to see Hudson Bay still pretty much frozen over still with many lakes in Canada also iced up.

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