In today’s write-up and video I thought I would show you the past January through March precipitation distribution and well as the month of April and past 7 days. Rather interesting when you compare these charts to the CFSv2 temperatures for the fast approaching meteorological summer season.

TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Oldham Weather @ChadWeather

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All in all it looks like the focus of warm and dry this year will be centred over Scandinavia down into Germany while it’s still looking cooler and wetter than normal across southern Europe.

Despite the record rains this past winter over Ireland and the UK, overall the trend has been one of drying out. That’s despite spells of wet weather, the overall picture is of normal to below normal precip in the past 60 days.

Here’s the rainfall through the first 3 months of the year. Wettest in the Southwest, driest up across Scandinavia.

Notice the turnaround in precipitation down over the Balkans for the month of April compared to the first 3 months of the year (below). April has been dry in the Southwest. Scandinavia remains exceptionally dry.

Here’s the past 7 days.

Note the transfer of wet soils south/eastward from January.

Now look at the forecasted temperature anomalies for June, July and August according to the CFSv2. It shows the warmest temps going to where the ground is driest. Scandinavia has been abnormally dry since last year. As for the UK, the ground will remain damp throughout the summer but global and nearby SST’s and atmospheric response to soil moisture over Europe, should mean a ‘decent’ summer with plenty of warm, sunny spells and a likely warmer, drier than normal summer overall.

See today’s video for more!

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