It’s looking like relief is coming this summer to one of the two major drought areas across the US. While California is unlikely to get any appreciable relief over the next 2-3 months, it looks promising on the Southern Plains.

Unless you live there and are feeling the effects each and every day, it may be easy to forget the severity of drought over North Texas into western Oklahoma. It’s just as bad as the worst hit areas of California.

On oncoming El Nino looks like it may significantly pull back the drought not so much in the next 10 days which looks good but through the upcoming 30 to 60 days.

Could the turnaround begin this week?

Here’s the 10 day QPF rainfall.

Southern Plains close up.

Notice where the biggest rains are expected…

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While a decent soaking through the upcoming 10 days won’t erase this drought in the Southern Plains, it sure will help and the longer term outlook supports wetter than normal conditions throughout the summer into fall. Notice that it’s got a lot of moisture aimed at the Rockies! The second half of summer into fall has wetter into California.

July through September

While I don’t believe a strong El Nino is coming on, it’s interesting and believable seeing the CFSv2 shift wettest areas from north to south as we progress from summer into fall. This looks like a good upcoming 6 month period for precipitation across the US, including California and Nevada but that comes later.

Many continue to scream SUPER NINO but modelling doesn’t show this. In fact modelling barely takes this nino to a moderate never mind strong and so the precipitation charts for the West, must bare watching rather that taking them by face value. Remember a weaker and more central based nino, tends to keep California and the West drier.

Just look at the warming up against the northern SA coast, indicative of El Nino coming on.

April 21

May 17

Models DO NOT show a strong El Nino.

Here’s the Jamstec model and notice the westward shift in warmest waters over the equatorial Pacific from summer to next winter.

The CFSv2 and Jamstec both transfer the warm water westward from summer into fall and this supports another cold fall and winter.

As for this week. Another trough drops into Southern California and Southwest. This process has already brought a return of the marine layer and much cooler air. Expect LA temperatures to only climb to the upper 60s this week but rest assured, the warmth returns before we get to Memorial Day weekend.

Surface modelling even has showers pushing south, possibly making it into SoCal. Rare for this late.

Be sure to watch today’s video for more. Have a great Monday.

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Tags: el nino