As we head towards mid week we build heights throughout Western Europe and while we’re warming the mid levels, we shut down the shower and t-storm activity also. More sun, warmer 850mb temps means a widespread 20-25C from France to southern Sweden including the South and East UK.

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The cooler air remains into Wednesday as pressure builds sufficiently that we see much clearer night skies and this sets the stage for a frosty night quite widely away from the warmth of towns and cities.

As warmth and high pressure heads for Scandinavia through the second half of this week, unfortunately a lot of energy associated with a develeoping low, is setting the stage for a potentially significant flooding event for the Balkans, northern Greece into west Turkey.

I showed this in yesterday’s post but want to show you it again, just look at the amount of rain the QPF is printing out over a wide area of eastern Europe.

That’s a problem given the energy expected and keep in mind that the air is warm down here. Draw this energy over naturally warm air flowing up from Africa and the Middle East and you’ve the recipe for powerful, flash flood producing thunderstorms.

The ECMWF surface charts show the northward progression of high pressure, drier, brighter and warmer weather throughout the West of the continent but it’s that well organised and moisture laden low diving into the naturally warm southeast Europe that concerns me. That’s likely to generate headlines by the end of the week into the weekend.

Also notice that we go from fairly widespread greens covering the western continent to complete clear as the atmosphere stabilises.

There’s a fair amount of uncertainty over the weekend and exactly where that front separating low pressure south of Iceland and high pressure over the near continent will be. Could be completely offshore of Scotland which means warm and sunny or it may be sitting south of the border, making for a much cooler, cloudy or even damp one.

As for early next week, well there’s even more complexity and uncertainty as the model as a low forming in the Bay of Biscay which may draw warm air into the UK from of the Med and Africa but also increase a potential thunderstorm threat with warm, unstable combo. Be sure to watch the video from earlier which discusses this further.

Here’s the charts into early next week.

Next post will be available tomorrow morning at 9.15am.

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