It is well known that the sun is the greatest driver of earth’s temperature and in recent years, the sun has become weaker and weaker. As a result, earth’s temperature has been, on the grand scale of things, trending cooler.

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It’s said that we have not seen global warming in 20 years, probably as a direct result of weaker and weaker solar cycle. We are currently in solar cycle 24, the last cycle, 23, weaked around the turn of the millennium and hit a minimum around 2008. What’s interesting is that 1998 is known as the warmest year, right around the peak of the last cycle which peaked stronger than our current cycle which peaked back in February 2014. Since then, global temperatures has been apparently cooling, though folks on the warming side of things would argue that.

Winter 2001-02 was warm in both North America and Europe, just following the previous peak. Winter was very cold on both sides of the Atlantic right at or just following the previous minimum (2008-2010). What’s interesting is our past winter (2013-14) was cold in North America but one of the warmest in Europe. The current solar cycle is said to have peaked just 2 months ago. North America was largely warm in 2011-12 while Europe suffered one of it’s coldest winter’s.

So, to summerise the above. Winter’s tend to be warm around the peak of a solar cycle and cold during a minimum. While BOTH continents tend to be colder during minimums and warmer during maximums, in around that 1-3 year period, one is cold, the other is warm. Solar cycle 24 (current) peaked when North America was cold, Europe was warm. Other factors come into play including ENSO and QBO which will be discussed in another post. Sea surface temperatures play a significant role both in the longer term and short term.

Note in the below chart, the sharp rise in sunspot activity in the 40s, 50s and peak in the 60s then a slight fall in the late 60s and 70s before another rise between 1980 and 2000. Both Atlantic and Pacific warmed and cooled in response.

There’s a strong link between ocean warming and cooling in response to the sun.

Warm-Cold phases of the Pacific (PDO) and Atlantic (AMO)

Atlantic

Since the minimum at the end of cycle 23 (2008), solar activity has been on a slow rise during 24, so the sunspot numbers from this current cycle have peaked, sooner and at a far lower number than cycle 23.

Here’s an interesting video from NASA explaining the solar cycle and current peak.

This chart below shows that the sunspot numbers are highest to date in the current sunspot cycle 24 and the trend is downward now. It’s also very clear that this peak is far lower than in cycle 23. The solar flux progression chart below also shows the same.

Note the downward trend with each solar cycle weaker than the last.

The grand peak since the 1940s appears to have been around 1955 not in the late 1990s to around 2000. In between in maximum, the minimums produced some very cold winters.

So, this past winter, although cold across North America, it was of course warm here in Europe, likely as a result of the ‘peaking’ of solar cycle 24 but the maximum was weak enough and with the help of the warm NE Pacific, for North America to be cold but in the run up to the maximum, North America saw milder winters following the cold winters of 2008-09 and 2009-10 right around the time of the last minimum. Notice that we’ve just peaked and should be trending downward over the next 12 to 24 months. This suggests a colder next few winters for Europe as well as across the pond.

Notice when looking back. Our winter was worst, particularly here in Western Europe, in the winter following the minimum (2009-10). The question remains. How bad will winter 2014-15 be with regard to the sunspot cycle alone.

High latitude blocking tends to be stronger during quiet solar periods or minimums and is less during maximums. We saw the lack of blocking in the Atlantic during this past winter I think part due to the solar max and part due to a cooling of the Atlantic waters. A lot of the reason for the cold North America winter was the abnormally warm Gulf of Alaska and responsive ridge.

It was Joe D’Aleo of Weatherbell who pointed out the QBO’s role in the cold US and warm Europe this season and the fact that the QBO was strong westerly which meant stratospheric warming biased to Pacific blocking but not Atlantic but this upcoming winter, as the solar flux is projected to be moderate and not high, we should see a weaker and more easterly QBO which supports a more full scale strat warming event which means Pacific and Atlantic blocking and a cold winter on BOTH sides of the Atlantic.

The overall trend is for quieter and weaker cycles. In other words the maximums become weaker and weaker with colder and colder winters during the minimums. This current situation resembles a trend which in the past, went into a period known as the Dalton minimum. A period back in the late 1700s, early 1880s when the sun was abnormally quiet and winters were extremely severe.

Although the sun is more active than back then, the current trend suggests that we may be heading towards another Dalton minimum. Not a good prospect.

Here’s a chart courtesy of the blog ‘Watts Up With That’ which shows how the current trend compares to the Dalton minimum.

I will do a post looking specifically at the QBO and explain what it is and what it means.

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Tags: dalton minimum, solar cycle 24, solar flux, sunspot cycle