While the worst may be over, winter is certainly not done with the US just yet.

Here’s the current snow cover.

To have half the US (50.9%) under a blanket of white on March 5, is impressive, in fact it’s down from 53.9% yesterday which was the 3rd highest on record for this time of year.

The Northeast is still 99% snow covered!! Takes a fair amount of cold air to fight melting at this late stage in the season.

Closer look at the rare March ‘snowpack’ over Texas and Louisiana..

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Check out the 10 day ECMWF snow chart!

168 hrs

240 hrs

Interesting look to late next week off the ECMWF 500mb/850 temp charts.

192 hrs

That could be a major snow event for the interior Northeast with VERY cold air diving south out of Canada in it’s wake..

216 hrs

Despite the +NAO and the AO going positive, the ridge remains anchored over the warm northeast Pacific and looks set to extend northward into Alaska again.

Importantly the PNA is positive which means the cold shots will keep on coming into the east, especially with somewhat of a reload right now over western Canada.

Ridge has been dominant this winter over the abnormally warm water in the northeast Pacific! It’s still there and will likely be a player in holding that ridge into spring and even summer.

NAO doesn’t really come into it as it’s been positive much of the winter. Even the AO has been positive several times, despite the US shivering. Just goes to show that you DON’T NEED a -NAO/AO to have bitter cold in the Lower 48.

Notice in the CFSv2 500mb height anomalies that the blocking in the arctic is all but gone, but the ridge begins to extend north from CA and points offshore back up into Alaska week 2-3.

Here’s the CFSv2 temps. Check out the warming which takes place again up over Alaska/NW Canada.

 

Model is showing a very cold Canada week 3-4. With a ridge up in Alaska and some hints of blocking returning to the arctic, one must assume that the door is open with nothing stopping that air mass diving south. Obviously in more and more modified fashion as by this stage, we’ll be pushing late month.

Latest Great Lakes ice cover is 91%, just 3% off the record.

Lake Superior is now 95.2% ice covered and I believe this sets a new record beating 1979!

As expected, Jamstec is seeing the cool summer ahead as a consequence!

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Tags: Great Lakes frozen over, great lakes ice