Meteorological winter 2013-14 draws to a close tomorrow and it ends as the UK’s wettest in 250 years, 7th warmest and warmest since 2007. Thank in part, the brutal US winter and for them, they have endured one of the coldest winter’s on record.
Here’s the official rainfall anomaly chart for this winter from the Met Office and just look at the large swath of dark blues.

Source/Copyright: Crown / Met Office
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Interestingly, this mild and VERY stormy winter looks set to go out on a ‘wintry’ note with snow potential over Ireland and central and southern parts of the UK with frost and an ice threat further north. This winter will be remembered for it’s rain and wild storms but as for snow, frost and ice, well it seemed non-existent.
I’m not going to go into great detail with the below charts as the discussion is in today’s video but thought I would show you these here.
As explained, the ECMWF and GFS has similarity with the initial southern track system but they vary when it comes to snowfall. While the GFS doesn’t entertain a second system, keeping it well north of the UK, the ECMWF makes a big deal of it. It suggests a snow event for northern parts. However, that same model also dumped 6 inches on Wales (last night) for tomorrow into the weekend, not it barely has anything. What do you go with??
ECMWF surface
24 hrs

Source: AccuWeather Pro
30

Source: AccuWeather Pro
66

Source: AccuWeather Pro
72

Source: AccuWeather Pro
ECMWF snow
48 hrs

Source: AccuWeather Pro
72

GFS surface
24 hrs

Source: AccuWeather Pro
42

Source: AccuWeather Pro
GFS snow
30 hrs

Source: AccuWeather Pro
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