No change in models and my opinion regarding next week’s solution for UK. Low dives south and colder air pushes in from the ENE bringing snow to some. See yesterday’s write-up and video for all the details. In this post I want to show you the prospects of the February pattern. There’s good news and I guess bad news..

Here’s the latest GFS snow forecast through next Friday!

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The month of February is looking like a pretty up and down month and despite a fair amount of blocking over the arctic, without that North Atlantic block and though we should see more cold than anytime this winter, it doesn’t look like a locked in pattern for cold during February. Explanation for that below..

Below is the GFS ensemble 2 metre temperature departures from normal through the upcoming 16 days. Notice they remains on the cold side.

Upcoming 7 days.

7-14 day

9-16 day

Yes, this upcoming week is cold and I suspect it remains fairly cold into early February but it’s looking more and more likely that the overall pattern will almost always have some Atlantic influence and the upcoming 7 day scenario will be our way of getting any real continent chill and snow into the UK.

What I mean by that is ATLANTIC LOWS come in as there doesn’t appear to be any solid evidence which shows a link up between central Atlantic and Greenland ridging and despite blocking over top, the westerly door remains unlocked. BUT, the good news is I think we may see more SSE tracking lows which would support reverse wind flow and a more frequent drag in of colder continental air which means we could get several occasions where we get diving lows with initial rain then a turn to snow, then cold before it warms 2 or 3 days after.

CFS temp anomaly chart for February shows this solution!

The blocking in the north also suggests that plenty of cold air will be in the mix both coming out of Greenland and sweeping into the continent from the east and so February may not be too bad of a winter month. The atmosphere in February is typically colder and so it’s easier for the atmosphere to produce snow with a little cold air than back in December.

As for subscribers in the Netherlands and Denmark, you guys look to be in the fight between mild Atlantic and cold continental. Interesting month coming up.

Of course IF there was to be more digging of the North Atlantic block, that of course would lean towards a colder pattern. Let’s wait and see.

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