While the models showed cold for this week and that ended up a bust, I will remain ‘cautious’ with the upcoming 7-10 day, though I have given plenty of backup as to why a colder trend is very plausible.

As stated countless times already, it’s a matter of when, not if, that we go into a colder pattern. In today’s post I thought I would show you for the first time, the new GFS ensemble ANOMALY charts that have been just made available. They point to an interesting upcoming 1-3 weeks and certainly hint at colder.

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What the below ensembles show, is something that I’ve been showing since Christmas but the pattern has simply been delayed without a -NAO but there appears to be light at the end of this stormy, largely mild tunnel. Again, given what’s happened with the no show of winter, I remain cautiously optimistic.

The Arctic Oscillation went negative around the time of the US cold outbreak and it’s went back positive but only briefly. A new dip into negative is underway. This would be supportive of a cold pattern for us.

Here’s the 10-14 day GFS blocking outlook and note the turnaround from low to positive heights over Greenland and Iceland towards the end of the 14 day period!

Here’s the 500mb height anomalies for the upcoming 7 days. Note the above normal heights NORTH and WEST of the UK!

Below is day 3-10. Again, note the blocking high it has from Greenland across the Scandinavia and down into southeast Europe as well as a high over the North Atlantic. A classic look signal for the UK, Ireland and Low Countries, France and Spain.

How about the 850mb temps. Yes, the upcoming 7 days look to have warmer anomalies for the UK but pay attention to the cold over Scandinavia and positive anomalies NORTH and WEST of the UK. With that setup, where does the cold head for?

Now look at Tue 21 through Tue 28 and note Scandinavia has warmed due to BUILDING HEIGHTS, where has that cold gone to? Likely southwest into the UK and Ireland. Note the positive anomalies have shifted north.

Take a look at the 8 day GFS ensemble meteogram for Dublin. Note the downward trend in 2 metre temps.

Day 9-15

I guess you could argue that temps hold steady but it appears to trend downwards in Dublin. Note dew points, wind and precipitation all drop off while surface pressure climbs. All signs of a colder setup for Ireland and therefore across the UK too.

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