In the last couple of days I’ve shown examples of where I’m getting the cold January idea for Western Europe and how it appears to be going to my long term mid winter forecast, first issued back in late summer but I want to take it further.

The examples where first given in Friday’s written post about the strong similarity to the setup seen at the end of December 2009 which of course kicked off our long and cold winter which once started, kept on going well into March. I then showed you more of these examples in yesterday’s video.

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Thought it would be good to show you another chart, the 700mb height anomaly for next month off the CFSv2. It reflects nicely with the 500mb I’ve already shown, only this is the monthly mean and not weekly.

Note the blocking seen in red over the arctic with a ribbon of below normal heights extending from North America to Europe.

Notice the similarity to the upper heights witnessed at the end of December 2009.

Also note the ridge poking up into Alaska which drives arctic air into eastern North America and the ridge over the Caspian Sea/eastern Europe which focuses the trough over western Europe. In fact the model shows the strongest negative anomaly over the UK than anywhere else.

Here’s projected Sea Surface Temps.

Current SST’s

Here they were back at the end of December 2009. Remarkably similar right?

Does this guarantee a majorly cold month? No BUT what it does say is that we’ve a healthy chance at seeing a turn to colder with possibly a very cold, locked pattern from the 15th perhaps extending all the way into February.

Latest CFS 500mb heights for January.

Sneak peak at the ECMWF Control and rather interesting by Jan 10.

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Tags: arctic blast, cold, europe winter, snow, uk cold, winter forecast