The next deep low sweeps in hot on the heels of the Christmas Eve system late Thursday into Friday with pressure expected to drop into the low 940s (mb). Current track, wind projections suggest that this could have significant impacts and across a broader area of the UK with the centre sweeping across Ireland into central and the northern UK from a southwest direction.

This as a matter of opinion, looks to have a ‘tighter packed’ wind field which could mean stronger winds, especially in areas which got off lightly from the Christmas Eve storm.

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That storm by the way appeared to drop it’s pressure to 929mb with 936mb recorded at Stornoway, while this is exceptionally low pressure, winds weren’t as strong as you’d have thought. The core of strongest winds appeared to be on the system’s leading edge through the English Channel and in the South of England and the higher parts of the Scottish Highlands.

Next in line is a system that’s less powerful and further west  the following Monday (30th) but could still bring the return of gales and flooding rains.

The GFS by New Years Eve has a low with a large and fairly deep trough over the UK. This could suggest a chilly New Year. Depending upon the status of the NAO, AO, it will be interesting to see how chilly this trough is, if it occurs.

Looking at the wider picture, we appear to have some significant longer term pattern changes on the way. Just look at the GFS ensemble for the Arctic Oscillation and look at the time period… That New Year low and trough is something worth watching and this tanking is just what we need for shutting down the Atlantic and bringing in a colder, more settled theme.

The NAO is also poised to go negative which suggests the mean trough should develop close to the UK. It appears to be close to neutral around New Year but heads negative into January at the same time the AO tanks. Great sign as we head into the heart of winter.

While this is a relatively short time period (1-2 weeks), there is some strong indications further down the road oif a colder than normal pattern with strong stratospheric warming over Siberia.

Up till now the polar stratosphere has been cold, strong and well organised, however there are signs that this organised cold pool will start to disorganise, becoming stretched. This could be the seeds to a much bigger warming event which may lead to much colder period through the second half of January across Europe including the West.

Interesting times ahead!

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

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