After a few days of spectacular and very rare levels of cold for so early, we watch closely the developing storm that’s poised to push up the East Coast in the coming days bringing a howling coastal gale, heavy, flooding rain and yes snow. That’s the same system which produced record snowfall in Oklahoma where over a foot fell and of course we saw over a foot in parts of New Mexico and close to a foot in Texas. That system is gathering steam now over the Southeast, taking a big gulp of Gulf moisture as well as drawing warmth and moisture from the Atlantic and will run up the coastal plain, strengthening as it does so.

As for those temperatures, Sunday saw lows drop to 11 in Chicago which was the coldest November low since 1995 when it also dropped to 11 while the weekend’s ‘average’ temperature of 20 for the O’Hare site was the coldest combined 2 day period in any November since 1991. The high of 26 Saturday was the coldest November day since 24 back in 2000.

While it was a brutal start in Chicago, there was little recovery during the day from Richmond, VA up to Maine with highs struggling to make freezing mid to late afternoon. Washington-Baltimore Airport only ‘warmed’ to 32 which set a new record cold high dating back 133 years.

The core of cold of course focused on the East Coast Sunday into Monday.

Probably the most impressive stat I’ve seen from this arctic outbreak was that according to the NWS, the high of only 30 in Central Park, NYC Sunday was the coldest day in November since 1949. All three major NYC airports saw their coldest November day since 1996. The low this morning in Philadelphia dropped to 20 which was the coldest November low in 24 years. Incidentally the daytime high the day before was a record for the date.

The low dropped to around -15 up at Mt Washington, NH this morning while it fell below zero in a few sheltered interior Northeast spots including Saranac Lake, NY. Many spots dipped into the teens while some spots in the Central Appalachians including Elkins, WV fell into single digits with Snowshoe Mountain Resort getting close to 0 earlier in the night.

As the low runs up the coast Tuesday-Wednesday bringing heavy rain, wind and interior snowfall, a fresh push of bitterly cold air drops over the Great Lakes bringing a fresh surge of lake-effect snow also. Expect a healthy 6-12 inches downwind of the lake snow belts including Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania and upstate New York with daytime highs go back into the 10s in Minneapolis and 20s in Chicago, Indianapolis, Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

While this will be largely a rain event for the Big Cities, I suspect some snow falls with perhaps a 1-2 inch accumulation as the low pulls away but it will all depend upon how much moisture is available.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart for Wednesday or Turkey Eve.

Heavy rains will significantly impact final day travel prior to Thanksgiving with localised flooding possible due to the persistent wind driven rains but if your travelling over the spine of the Appalachians say from western Virginia or West Virginia up through Pennsylvania, New York and New England, expect snow, some of which could be heavy and persistent.

Here’s the latest QPF through 120 hours. A lot of rain on the way.

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Closer look over the Northeast.

Here’s the latest ECMWF snow projections through 120 hours and you can see a decent 6 inch covering over much of the Appalachians.

A closer look.

Do be aware of the cold air which comes in on the backside of the low. Temperatures stay in the 30s in the mountains with snow flying while in the warm sector, it warms into the 50s from DC to Boston but look out for a very sharp 24 hour drop once that cold arctic air sweeps in on the backside. Highs Thanksgiving Day are in the LOW 30s all of a sudden from DC to NYC and could stay in the 20s in Boston the day after. Another cold night follows with low 20s again for the Big Cities, teens in the burbs. It could easily go below 0 in the mountains where there will be fresh snow cover.

Here are the tomorrow’s highs.

Tomorrow night lows.

Cold start to Thanksgiving morning in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

Not much better Thanksgiving Day.

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Tags: Arctic, arctic air, cold, northeast weather, Thanksgiving snowstorm, Thanksgiving storm