Confidence is high on Western Europe including Ireland and the UK turning considerably colder late this weekend into early next week. Modelling has been consistent at building high pressure northwards east and west of the UK which will turn winds due north.

First of all we must contend with a rather windy spell over the next 36 to 48 hours as another Icelandic low swings a frontal system across the UK. Winds crank through tomorrow with gales widely across the Northern UK and Northern Ireland along with a spell of heavy rain. Winds are SW tomorrow with severe to storm-force gusts expected over the far NW Scottish mainland and Outer Hebrides and Northern Isles, hurricane-force gusts likely over Cairngorm Summit with snow, likely blizzard conditions.

The below chart is the GFS surface/precip for later tomorrow and you can see the tightly packed isobars representing strong winds. Note their less over Southern England.

Iceland will get another decent snowfall over the higher ground and even to low levels with a bitter backside flow once the low exits to the east. While stormy over Iceland and the Northern UK, high pressure remains dominant over much of Europe but it stays rather unsettled over south-central Europe with flooding rains across Italy.

By Thursday (below) the low tracks ENE across the Norwegian Sea and we get the cold NW flow on the rear of the system while a surge of milder air gets pumped into Iceland, replacing the chill here. The troublesome low will present wet, windy, chilly conditions to all of Western mainland Europe.

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By Friday ridging brings in mild, moist air to Ireland and the UK while the ‘unsettled’ weather stays to our north. The latter stages of the week could be mostly cloudy, drizzly with little wind.

Turn To Colder Late Weekend

Change appears to arrive through the second half of the week as a boundary drops south with rain and perhaps some windy conditions. While there’s no real big temperature change, the jet stream will be to our south and it will be somewhat cooler but it’s more as the next low passes to our north do we start to see a turn to colder.

Here’s Sunday and you can see the front sagging south. Mainly westerly flow for Europe.

It as low pressure nears Norway, do we start to see colder air way up to the north start to progress south as winds veer from W to NW and eventually N. High pressure to our SW will be allowed to drift north towards Iceland and it’s as this high builds north, do we see arctic air head south.

Below is the 850mb temperatures Monday and you can see winds turning NW. Note the VERY COLD it’s set to drag down.

By early Tuesday we have a 1032mb ridge to our west and another ridge over eastern Europe. Another passes to the north and it’s this with the two highs either side, that will drive south the coldest air, by far, of this autumn season. While arctic northerly flows aren’t particularly rich with moisture, one must watch for snow showers and even at low levels!

Note the mess down over the central Med.

The model shows colder and colder air from the north start to shift south.

Later on Tuesday the stage is set with a strong northerly flow driving arctic air down over the UK and Ireland. Highs would likely hold at just 2-5C with below freezing wind chills.

Here comes the core of cold.

Closer look!

Looks like the chill will linger throughout next week.

192 hr

264 hr

The big question many are asking, will this colder pattern with North Atlantic blocking last?

I don’t believe so and the reason I say that is because we don’t have enough blocking over top of the pole. Had this cold pattern been caused by a polar stratospheric warming event with warming and building heights over the arctic, then I would have said yes.

My theories support the idea of this cold coming and going BEFORE real winter hits in December. Remember the NAO/AO is set to go negative and right now, their BOTH positive. That actually makes the US cold pattern we’re seeing now all the more impressive, in other words the core of cold remains in the arctic as you can see from the below ECMWF chart.

Here’s the ECMWF chart for tomorrow. Note the arctic air reservoir is largely intact over the pole.

Of course we have seen heavy snowfall and much colder weather over Japan and northeast Asia and currently over eastern North America. While it warms some this weekend over the US, check out the below ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps across the hemisphere for next Wednesday at the same time we turn cold.

Note the North Atlantic ridge and twin troughs either side. Another arctic blast drops into the United States at the same time we get our arctic blast. Notice the reason or trigger is in fact a tongue of warmer air which lifts north from Siberia up over the pole, splitting the polar vortex to a degree and forcing the arctic air south into North America and Europe.

Waters are cooling around the UK now and this is likely helping encourage the trough and cold to come further west this time. The warmest SST’s are now focusing further west and so the ridge follows this. Get what I’m hinting at? BTW, next week’s arctic air mass should help further cool the waters surrounding the UK, setting the scene for later down the road.

I believe a much greater push of warmer air into the arctic occurs in about 4 to 6 weeks from now which splits the polar vortex altogether. Major snow/cold around Christmas? Hint hint…

Btw, check out water temperatures back on Dec 1, 2011. Note the WARM waters surrounding the UK as we entered winter. The ridge of course lingered too close to the UK and it was a none winter. You can see the difference this year as waters are now cooling and as already stated, next week’s cold will cool our surrounding waters further, shifting the mean ridge WEST for winter. That’s the theory anyway!

Interestingly, check out Dec 3, 2009 and note the tongue of cold water stretching across the North Atlantic with warmth above and below and yes, at that stage, waters were cooling around the UK. Similar to this year!

So, if waters were still warm around us into December, I would be worried but they’re now, so we shall wait and see what old winter has to throw at us this year.

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