The strong westerly flow looks to continue through the next 10 days at least. As Greenland becomes fiercely cold as you would expect at this time of year with a positive NAO, there will be cold shots for Ireland, the UK and the western mainland of Europe, particularly on the rear of low pressure systems. Ahead of approaching lows however we will see surges of warmer air along with an increase in wind and more organised rain.

The weekend system will bring more organised rain across a large area of Ireland and the UK Friday-Saturday but expect more colder, brighter days to follow with cold and frosty nights.

Here’s the push of milder air ahead of the next low but notice the cold being drawn from the Greenland cold pool on the backside of the system. Even though it’s not particularly clear that there’s a circulation, you can see the mild lifting north while the cold is pulling south and east on the backside.

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By 72 hours and there’s the modified cold pulled over the UK on the backside of the weekend system which will continues east across the North Sea into the Low Countries, Denmark and S Norway bringing wind and rain.

Notice though the tongue very milder air beginning to lift out of the sub-tropics as the cold drops over the UK, this is likely to push right over Ireland and the UK mid next week, helping lift temperatures across the board for a couple of days as the next systems winds up. Don’t be surprised with this surge if we see 16-18C over Southern England, 12-14C up here in Scotland.

Here it comes!

As you would expect, given what continues to ‘build’ to the north and also given the fact this mild surge is associated with the approach of a low, what comes up, must come down.. well you know what I mean, take a look at the cold shot which follows.

Note the pressure continues building beneath the upper trough over Greenland. With a 1035mb surface high over Greenland with -20C 850 temps later next week, don’t be surprised to see the low bottom out at -60C at Summit Camp. Of course, the chill which drops over us on the backside of lows is an extremely modified version of this cold but in pattern’s such as this with cold as intense as it is over Greenland, don’t be surprised towards late month if some of the backside cold shots try to make it snow to lower levels over the UK.

Late next week’s cold shot is followed by more mild… and so the pattern goes on well into mid November.

Be sure to watch today’s video for more!

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