It was just yesterday when we saw temperatures start off at -10C and remain at a chilly -2 to -4C during the day over Iceland while low pressure produced 98 mph winds over the Scottish Mountains and drove arctic origin air south. Today that low is dropping south over the North Sea and driving the coldest air of autumn deep into Europe. In fact it’s brought the first snowfall to Munich, Germany and heavy snows are now breaking out over the Alps as forecasted.

In the wake of the low, a strong upper ridge has pumped very mild air north, producing a dramatic rise in temperature throughout Iceland and forced the melting of snow.

Here was yesterday’s upper chart off the ECMWF

Here’s today.

Check out the rather cold, bleak wilderness of northwest Iceland two days ago.

Check out the same view today!

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Ultimately the forcing of warm air north has dislodged the bitter cold and drove it south.

As we head into tomorrow, the low closes off over France continuing to pile NE winds across Southeast England with some showers while ridging builds into the northern half of the UK across to Scandinavia.

Here’s the surface chart which shows the cut off low brings messy weather to much of west and central Europe with a banana high bridging over top. This supports a good spell for Ireland and Scotland. Relatively mild days, chilly night.

Here’s the upper chart Saturday

Projected snow over the next 72 hrs according to the GFS

By Sunday into Monday the model tries to lift the cut off low back north over the North Sea while the core of high pressure nudges further north over the Norwegian Sea. This tries to deepen a Scandinavian trough and there’s a heck of a cold air mass which tries to drop south with it. Beyond early and mild next week the model looses sight of the trough and tries to build heights right across Europe which I don’t believe given the indexes.

Mon (120 hrs)

Wed (168 hrs)

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Tags: Europe October snow, Munch snow, Munich's first snow