While a lot of focus is now on the upcoming warmth which by the way could linger through the next 7-10 days, all indicators suggest colder times ahead with a significant change in the upper pattern across the northern hemisphere to end the month.
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Both NAO/AO have been positive for a solid month and a half but check out the latest NAO/AO ensembles off the GFS below. This suggests a substantial cold start to October for both UK and US.
ECMWF doesn’t see any real trough or cold coming south over the next 15 days but through the next 7+ days, it will be interesting to see if the models hold on to the current ridging which is seen to last the remainder of Sep.
As for the GFS, it’s attempting to bring a trough and lower heights into western Europe around the 1st of Oct.
See video for more.
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