Despite a chilly, windy and at times wet weekend, the warmth has returned and impressive it was today over northeast Scotland thanks to strong early September sunshine, a stiff but warming SW wind and downsloping off the Grampians. Typically chilly and misty Aberdeen soared to 25C which would be considered very respectable even in mid-July. This occurred while many western parts was shrouded in low cloud and rain.

The Azores high pressure system is and will build north of the UK and Ireland through the first half of this week and so temperatures are expected to rise further tomorrow through Thursday, likely peaking near 28 or 29C in the Southeast during Thursday. It would not surprise me if we see 27C over North Yorks, 26 or 27C up in Aberdeenshire over the next few days while it’s cooler further west. Nonetheless, western areas such as Glasgow should climb to 21C by Wednesday.

Here are the latest GFS surface temperatures for the next few days across the UK and Ireland.

Tue PM

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The reason for a considerably cooler west on Tuesday?

Wed PM

Thu PM

In the larger map, notice the lack of precip over Europe while the front begins to nudge into NW Britain bringing heavy rains.

Plenty of HOT sunshine should extend from Madrid (35C) up through Paris (30C), London (28C), Rotterdam (29C) and Copenhagen (26C) Thursday.

Skipping out to 144 hrs or Sunday and the front swings through the UK with a trough back in play for the UK. The heat gets forced east and the western flank of mainland Europe returns to a more unsettled setup.

Here’s the upper chart/850 temps by 168 nhrs or next Monday. Upper low spins over the southern UK but drifting south… warmth to return from the east?

The ECMWF drops the upper low further south by 216 hrs. Warmth could return to the UK from the east. Showers, storms to affect southern France and parts of Iberia with this setup.

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