It sure has been a quiet hurricane season up till now. In fact 2013 now makes it only the sixth year since 1960 in which no hurricanes have formed up till now. Interestingly, each of those years which include 1967, 1984, 1988, 2001 and 2002 all eventually became active with 4-6 hurricanes forming and with the MJO becoming more favourable along with less and less dry air. It looks inevitable that this quiet streak is living on borrowed time.

What’s interesting is the fact that with these few select years in which there was no hurricanes in the Atlantic prior to Sept 1st, most of those years went on to produce major cold the following winter. The question is, could history repeat itself by going on to produce 4-6 hurricanes and either a cold winter overall or a spell in which we see a particularly severe spell of cold over the eastern US and Western Europe.

There is some interesting correlations for sure. This would certainly tie in well with the various indicators out there which would certainly support the idea of a forthcoming cold and snowy winter on both sides of the Atlantic.

Linking further, the city of Philadelphia didn’t manage to crack 90 degrees during any day this past August. How unusual is that? Well you have to go all the way back to 1984 for the last time that has happened. Ironically, 1984 is one of the 6 years in which no hurricanes formed before Sep 1. As for the following winter. Well it ended warm but was followed by the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1985 which was one of the most intense arctic outbreaks in US history.

Take a look at the below chart showing just how cold it got back in January 1985.

As for the UK. It was also very cold and snowy through much of January and February. Temperatures plunged to -22.4C at Aviemore in the Scottish Highlands where 50cm of lying snow was measured. Glasgow fell to -11.1C (12F) one night while Brighton on the English south coast and Shrewsbury saw daytime maximums of -6C.

Much of Europe likewise shivered but in even worse conditions than what the UK witnessed.

Remember back to earlier this year when we saw record cold over many parts of the US. Quite a few of those cold records which fell, where from 1984.

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While a very long way out still. Take a look at the CFSv2 model forecasts for this upcoming December and January.

Warm December but cold January. Hint of 1984-85?

As for 1988, another year with no June, July or August hurricane went on to produce a brutal 1988-89 Alaskan winter but it was warm across the Lower 48. The following December however produced an historic arctic outbreak over the Lower 48.

1967 produced a big winter over the US Midwest with Chicago getting a 23 inch dumping of snow from a single storm and it was particularly snowy over the UK.

2001 was followed by a record warm winter for the US but in 2002 which was the last year in which the Atlantic saw no hurricanes before Sep 1, went on to produce a cold and often snowy winter in 2002-03 which ended with the Blizzard of 2003 over the Eastern US.

 

ADDITONAL THOUGHTS

This winter sure will be interesting. Especially when you see the warm waters across the north and the North Atlantic tripole now showing up which should promote blocking over Greenland. The negative NAO signal is crucial at directing arctic air into eastern North America and western Europe. You could get the strongest -AO but without the right position of the blocking high, you simply don’t get the polar plunge potentially in your region of the mid-latitude.

A major factor I think to the intensity of cold outbreaks this winter could be the much more extensive arctic sea ice and with a predominantly +AO through at least the first half of September, this means the arctic can only grow colder from now on. This should make for a fully charged reservoir of cold over the pole by late autumn into winter.

 

Here are current SST’s

August 29, 2013

Sept 3, 2009.

Although 2009 isn’t a link to quiet starts to hurricane seasons, there is however a stronger correlation to the amount of arctic sea ice, a similar ENSO index and current SST’s. That winter of course was brutal in the Eastern US and Western Europe.

Finally, here’s the CFS 500mb height anomalies for the upcoming December through February period.

December

January

February

Note the significant northern and North Atlantic blocking! Given the potentially larger and strongest pool of arctic air to begin with. This may not be overly dissimilar to some of the great cold outbreaks such as December 89, January 85 and winters such as 2009-10.

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