The squeeze play between low pressure to our west and high pressure to our east continues. Embedded lows look set to bring us a series of pulses containing heavy rain and thunderstorms. The warm, juicy source crossing warmer than normal waters means the torrential downpour and flood risk remains high throughout the UK and Ireland. This very setup was highlighted throughout July as we headed for August and I don’t see much change in this setup well into next month.

High pressure, though well to our southeast, is close enough and working in tandem with the low to continue drawing warm, humid air north keeping the ‘tropical feel’ going and helping energise our atmosphere. The next front associated with the low will swing a heavy band of rain across the UK tonight and tomorrow before clearing north through the day with thundery showers following. Then after an improving picture Friday into Saturday for many, we cast our eyes to a potentially potent area of thundery rain which spreads northeast across South and Southeast England Sunday within a low.

Check this out for 96 hours off the ECMWF.

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This northeast tracking low seen on the ECMWF could bring flooding rain to Northern England and parts of Central and Eastern Scotland late Sunday into Monday after drenching the South.

As soon as that system clears and heads Norway-bound, yet another swath of rain sweeps in from the southwest.

Here’s Monday.

More next Wednesday in the North and in the South Thursday….!

Looking through next week, the main low remains anchored to our west with high pressure strong to our east and building over the Med. That upper level setup will keep this warm but unsettled pattern going with plenty more localised flooding rain episodes as embedded lows with pulses of heavy, thundery rains going, riding the Azores to Norway atmospheric conveyor belt. Without the main low crossing us due to too strong of a ridge to our east, the SSW flow will continue to keep us on the warm, humid side. I don’t really see much change in this setup through at least the second week of August.

Mediterranean Temperatures Set To Turn Dangerously Hot!

While it may almost appear tropical-like across the UK with warmth, humidity and torrential downpours, if your heading for the SUNNIER climbs of the Mediterranean in coming days, it may seem more desert-like this weekend on into next week and temperatures are set to soar and could well turn dangerous. The heat looks set to really build beneath a strengthening upper ridge above the Mediterranean Sea. If you or your friends are heading to the Spanish Costas, Balearics Sicily, Sardinia, Italy or the Greek Islands, prepare for potentially dangerous levels of heat especially into early and mid next week.

The Spanish Costas, Balearics, Sicily and Sardinia as well as all of Italy look set to see headline grabbing hot weather this weekend with worsening conditions into next week with record daytime and night time temperatures possible . Interior island or mainland temperatures may surpass 40C widely with a heightened danger to tourist and even acclimatised locals. Wildfires could become a problem too with this setup as conditions like set to become tinder dry.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart and 850mb temps from Saturday well into next week.

Sat 27

Mon 29

Wed 31

Fri 2

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