It’s been a hot and humid past few days along the Eastern Coastal Plain thanks to the Bermuda high building westward. In the last 3 days, highs have persistently risen into the low 90s from Richmond, VA up to Boston, providing classic hot, hazy and humid weather for the 4th of July holiday’s and that heat looks set to continue through the weekend.

However, change comes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic later next week as ridging re-strengthens over the Great Basin. After a torrid time from Tucson to Boise, the heat ‘briefly’ eases this weekend but models show the high building and so the surface temps will be on the rise into early and mid next week.

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Heat Re-Builds Out West, Spreads Into Northern Plains Next Week

As the ridge intensifies, it spreads ENE and so folks who may have been asking, where’s summer over the Dakotas and Minnesota, well it looks like the heat is on mid and late next week. Wouldn’t be surprised to see 100s over the Dakotas while Minneapolis sees the 90s return. There is of course a lot of water on the ground, so it’s going to be interesting to see just how warm it gets across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Looking at the ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps, you can see how the ridge rebuilds out to the West while heights lower with even an upper low spreading across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the second half of next week.

Sat 6th

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So, expect a rise in Western temperatures next week while a low pushing east through the Lakes increases, shower and thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley mid next week, eventually spreading into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of next week. This will slash the heatwave along with the humidity and so the focus shifts back west from California to Kansas.

Keep in mind that’s it been cool of late from North Texas to the Dakotas thanks to the persistent and very deep trough. That feature will be off the map in coming days as the flow flattens.

Tropical Downpours Pose Flood Threat To Houston-Galveston Area

As for the Gulf Coast from the saturated Florida Panhandle back through New Orleans and all the way to Houston, a LOT of rain will fall. No surprise for points east but as for the Houston and Galveston area, we could see quite a lot of tropical rains over the weekend, extending into early next week.

Here’s the latest GFS precipitable chart through the next 72 hours and notice the oranges indicating a lot of moisture pushing north from the Gulf.

Here’s the latest QPF for the next 72 hours. Looking very wet along the Gulf Coast but it’s the Houston-Galveston area that I think could see flooding in coming days as a disturbance lifts a lot of rich tropical moisture north onshore along the Upper Texas coast.

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