We’re into a new week and it’s unfortunately the same weather pattern which ended last week and dominated the weekend. The hosepipe of moisture being funnelled due north up the East Coast between the deep trough to the west and Bermuda high to the east continues today, supporting heavy, soaking showers and thunderstorms. The air remains very juicy and warm as this air is coming all the way from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

This setup aided in many Eastern cities including Philadelphia and New York, even Boston record their wettest or one of their wettest June’s on record which have all seen over 10 inches of rain. DC saw it’s 4th wettest June and in stark contrast, there was not a drop of rain fell in Las Vegas where it became the hottest June on record along with Phoenix, helped by temperatures of 115 to 117 and 119 respectively.

Anyway, here’s the upper pattern for today and much of the same. Clear to see how air from the tropics is being sucked north.

The powerful Great Basin high and Bermuda high is keeping the pattern very blocked and stuck and that’s why there’s little change in the past 5 days and rainfall totals are mounting up. Their is slight changes along the immediate Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast by coast by Thursday (Independence Day).

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Notice on Wednesday the Bermuda high expands westward. What this will do is transfer the focus or concentration of heaviest showers and storms a touch west or west of the I-95 corridor.

Check out the chart by Friday, the ridge is actually on the coast and so July 4-5th should be sunnier and indeed warmer!

Unfortunately, while there’s a break in the heavy rains and thunderstorms over the Big Cities, with yes a slight risk of showers and storms, but less so, the focus simply shifts into the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, making from a crummy July 4th from Chicago to Pittsburgh.

Check out these graphics below from AccuWeather. They illustrates the situation well.

Southeast Just Gets Wetter & Wetter!

As for the already soaked Southeast from New Orleans to Jacksonville up to Raleigh, the atmospheric setup remains a constant and very conducive for flooding rains. An additional 2-4 inches of rain is expected here over the next 73 hours as tropical moisture continues to stream north, helped to lift by the cooler air aloft and disturbances riding south on the wild jet stream dip which is reaching unusually far south for July. All the way to Louisiana.

Check out the latest QPF chart for the next 3 days.

 

For some areas across Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee, the ground is saturated. This of course as highlighted, is having a significant impact on temperatures this summer. What a difference compared to last year at this time.

Vast Contrast In Overnight Lows This am!

While both Las Vegas and Phoenix was a little cooler last night compared to previous night’s, Stovepipe Well within Death Valley NP appears to have fallen to a low of only 105 according to Jesse Ferrell which may in fact be a GLOBAL record as Death Valley’s hottest potentially up until this morning was 103, recorded back in 2003.

The entire West is very warm at night with a low of only 78 in Boise, ID after a day in which a high of 110, fell just 1 degree shy of their all-time record. Keep in mind, Boise is in the mountains and 78 is warm for here at night. Back during the weekend, Salt Lake tied their record for the warmest night ever recorded with a low of 80!

In VERY stark contrast, the deep trough anchored in the heart of the nation has seen some VERY cool overnight temperatures thanks to clear skies, light winds and very dry air. How cool? Try a record low of 38 in Marquette, MI which produced frost on the NWS office as seen in the pic below.

It was a very impressively cool start to a July 2nd morning with temperatures dipping into the 40s in Nebraska, Kansas and even down as far as Oklahoma. Seiling, OK reported 49 degrees this morning which is just 1 degree shy of the all-time coldest Oklahoma temperature for July according to Jesse Ferrell.

50s made it into North Texas where a record low of 55 was achieved in Amarillo. Amazing considering the heat just days ago which broke June records in both Houston (107 degrees) and San Antonio (108 degrees). All thanks to exceptionally dry air which dropped all the way from Canada. Dry air of course heats and cools faster than moist air.

Little Relief On The Horizon For The West

As for the heat Out West. Well it’s set to continue this week and some moisture will keep trying to push north from the Gulf and Mexican mainland. At this moment, the focus of storms is a touch east over the Rockies, staying mainly east of the Deserts and so there is no true break in this heat. Yes we will see a trough drop into the PNW this weekend which will drop highs back below 110 in both Phoenix and Las Vegas but into next week, the ridge rebuilds with highs returning to the 110s. Looks like there’s little relief on the horizon for the hot and very arid West.

One good thing is, the ridge is not as strong as what we’ve just seen.

String Of 90s Ahead From DC To New York Early Next Week?

As you’ll have gathered from the above, the Bermuda high will back far enough west and onshore into the upcoming weekend that relief is on the way from the wettest weather. Even by Thursday, 90s return to DC and Philadelphia and flirt with NYC, if it doesn’t get there but into early next week as there appears to be some classic hot, hazy and humid days through the weekend and into early next week.

Here’s the latest ECMWF taking us through the weekend and into next week.

Sat 6th

Mon 8th

Wed 10th

What appears clear is that the current setup looks to continue through at least the first half of July. The heat will remain relentless in the West but there is signs in the longer term (3-4 week period) of cooling in the West but that very much remains to be seen while the tropical dew points, aided by soaked ground and warmth being wheeled north from a mainly offshore Bermuda high will keep the East warm, steamy with always a risk of showers and storms.

Here’s a look at the latest CFSv2

Week 1-2

Week 3-4

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