As we approach July, one must start watching the tropical Atlantic as the MJO index looks set to enter increasingly more favourable octants.
While the GFS is going through phase 1, the ECMWF clearly shows it entering phase 2 and that’s prime time for western Atlantic development over the next couple of weeks. Quite often when the MJO is of good use, we watch for development initially in the eastern Pacific off west coast Mexico and then it’s only a matter of time before the western Atlantic basin pops something.
Here’s the latest GFS MJO ensemble.
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Check out the ECMWF.
Given the above, I would be shocked if we don’t see something in the Atlantic over the next 14 days and in fact we could see a couple of systems over the next 20 days.
Remember back to my original ideas for this season. This year, given the pattern globally, over the US, Atlantic and those water temperatures, it’s very like 2005. The cold spring, wetness in the East and Southeast and the impending heatwave Out West later this week. See post from earlier!
The below GFS CHI 200-hpa shows areas of increased convection (green) over the Atlantic for a time from the end of June through July 7.
These MJO phases can also show temperature patterns across the Lower 48 also.
Phases 1 and 2 are cool phases for the East as you can see from the below chart. This ties in very nicely with my overall thinking for July. Cool and wet in the East, warm and dry in the West.
Day 7-10 by the way could rival the heat we saw back in 2005 over the Desert Southwest. Las Vegas is a city I’m paying particular attention to.
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