While things go down hill tomorrow night as a rather vigorous Atlantic low swings a front across Ireland and the UK bringing not only unseasonable cool but wind will be unusually brisk for this late in June too. Wet weather will also accompany those strong winds of course.

After a spell of wet and windy weather Friday night into Saturday, look for the low to sit directly overhead during Sunday, so it’s showery with decent spells of sun, even some warmth can be had in that sunshine.

This spell of cool and unsettled is what I would call, a blip in our current warm, settled spell. Yes there have been showers, storminess around but a lot of that is due to the heat and humidity and once we get into next week, more ridging pushes in from the southwest. That means warmer and more settled weather returns.

ECMWF 500mb chart for Sunday

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Surface chart for Sunday.

Even when the ECMWF has wavered a little on next week’s ridge and warmth returning, I have been confident that it’s coming back fast due to the NAO’s status. It should be largely fine, dry and warming up by Tuesday with much of the weekend mess clearing east during Monday, the model shows surface heights climbing to 1028mb Tuesday all the way to next weekend.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb and surface charts for Tuesday.

Surface

Notice all the upper low pushing east with clearing on the backside.

By 144 or next Wednesday, high pressure is back in control with surface heights above near 1028mb, supporting lots of sunshine and warmth.

By Thursday the ECMWF has upper heights at a respectable 572dc. Both surface and upper ridge with nice mild 850mb temperatures should support low 20s again for Scotland and Northern Ireland, low to mid-20s for parts of Ireland, much of England and Wales both Wednesday and Thursday.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb chart for Thursday.

By Friday, the model shows a low pushing wet weather across a large chunk of Ireland and the Northern UK but surface heights over 1024mb and upper heights, strong at 576mb with the 580dc height line over southern Ireland and the UK suggests that while it’s unsettled in the North, it remains warm or very warm over central and southern areas.

Here’s the upper level and surface charts for Friday.

Upper

Surface

With those kind’s of heights, I wouldn’t be surprised if the wet weather ends up staying further north late next week.

Below is the very latest GFS NAO ensemble and notice the NAO returning to neutral, if not negative towards the end of June/start of July. I wouldn’t worry about this as this may correct itself next week, showing less of a dip and even if it does dip, the pattern is starting to reveal itself. Warm, settled spells are being broken up by shorter spells of cool and unsettled. Like I keep mentioning, this is NOTHING like last year.

Be sure to watch tonight’s video if you haven’t watched it already.

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