The upcoming week looks on track to produce the hottest weather of the year so far for Europe as a major surge of heat lifts north from the Sahara. This is the same surge I showed mid last week which was originally further west. The ECMWF has now corrected east given the blocking of low heights and fronts over the UK as well as the positioning of the low cutting off en-route to Iberia. Yet more cool and unsettled weather is on the way for Spain and Portugal.

The ECMWF has been showing the northward advance of downright hot air through much of the past week but there was uncertainty as to how far west and north it would get. The key is the unusually strong upper low dropping from the UK south as this is forcing a strong northward flow, tapping very hot air now over the Sahara.

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The upper low diving south still looks to cut off, but the hot air pushing north in response looks to get forced due north, then east as fronts pushing down from the NW will keep this heat from heading into the UK and Ireland.

However, warmer air will still try to get into the UK, but it’s not from the main south to north flow pushing up from Africa but more from the Azores and Iberia as the cool pool associated with the upper low, replaces the warmth down there just now.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart/850 temps for Mon, Wed and Fri of this upcoming week.

Mon

Wed

Fri

As for here in the UK, I remain confident that we should begin to see ridging build over the Northwest of the continent later next week into the following week as the NAO returns to positive.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a trough starting to develop in the east and a ridge in the west next weekend into the following week and one must watch this hot air lifting north.. It could well have impact here in the next 7-10 days.

Here’s the latest NAO ensemble.

Hope to show you some autumn/winter charts in a post tomorrow!

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