After a damp day across Ireland and much of the UK, a second pulse spreads across Ireland and Northern Ireland tonight into Scotland tomorrow and this promises a decent soaking. A third pulse arrives Wednesday night into Thursday and more rain arrives Friday before a low swings in bringing windier conditions along with the rain.

While there are a lot of uncertainties regarding next week, the models are showing the weekend low which was seen by the models EARLY last week, taking a SE track towards Iberia and cuts off. Interestingly the models are hinting at height rises and significant warming at 85mb over the UK and Ireland.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart for Saturday.

Here’s the upper chart

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Into early next week as high pressure builds into the UK as low pressure dives south and becomes a large, sprawling cut off low which would present more cool and unsettled weather to Iberia. However while showers, thunderstorms and cool air spiral over Spain and Portugal. This southward punch is seen to draw a lobe of hot air out of Africa and the circulation of the large upper low draws the hot air up into France, the Low Countries and even near the SE UK.

Tue 18th

Check out the upper chart by next Wednesday. The surface chart shows a rain band sliding into Scotland from the northwest but heat is certainly advancing north into the South of England.

Wed 19th

By next Thursday the model shows by far the warmest air of the year so far pushing into the Southeast up into the heart of England.

Thu 20th

It’s way to early to call for the a surge of true heat next week but this is interesting given what has been alluded to around the 20th onwards. Let’s keep a close eye on this. It can’t be denied that surface charts show unsettled weather next week but this may be hinting at real summer warmth on the way. The NAO ensemble still shows a return to positive around the 20th which coincides nicely with this look.

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