Hope you all enjoyed the glorious weekend! It’s the start of a new week and back to reality in terms of the weather.

We should be able to squeeze out one last decent day today with morning cloud and light, spotty showers making way to partial sunshine and warming temperatures. Unfortunately the rain is now spreading east across Ireland and Northern Ireland but it’s slow because of the ridge over the UK. This will gradually breakdown over the next 24 hours.

Even tomorrow should be decent across central and eastern areas before the cloud and rain moves in. For Inverness, Glasgow, Manchester and Oxford, it may take till mid or even late afternoon Tuesday before the front arrives with patchy rain.

Here’s the ECMWF projected cloud cover by 24 hours.

As for the precip associated with the front, well for the same period as the cloud chart above, it’s further back, still over Ireland and pushing into the Southwest of England as heights are slightly lower here.

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Eventually this band of precip crosses mainland Britain later Tuesday.

Here’s by 42 hours.

Once this system is through, it’s not that the flood gates open in terms of rain but more the Atlantic door is reopened with bungled energy which has been spinning away over the North Atlantic and accumulating, is being released and strung across the UK and Ireland as the block removed, the next 7-10 days will see lows swing pulses of rain across Ireland and the UK but there shall be breaks in between with warm sunshine to be had.

The initial system is the breakdown but spells of heavier rain should follow Wednesday, Thursday, Friday into the weekend as there will be no block.

Here’s the first decent pulse pushing into Scotland Wednesday.

On Thursday the rain band is concentrated further south while Scotland gets a break.

Here comes the next pulse Friday into Saturday.

We should also see the worst of the rain and wind across more northern areas and with a SW flow, warmer air will push into the South, so expect low 20s.

The ECMWF suggests a decent soaking to much of the UK and Ireland over the next 7 days but with the ground being dry, this is welcome. At this time last year the ground was saturated and with more heavy rains frequently pushing in off the Atlantic, it was indeed very unwelcome and the feedback was already well established. These rains should also not scupper my summer idea I’ve been alluding to now since early spring.

Here’s the accumulated rain totals for the next 7 days according to the ECMWF.

The ECMWF shows higher pressure building in early next week, so hopefully things should settle down, giving top soils a chance to dry out.

I continue to stand by my original idea of building heights towards the later stage of June as the NAO goes back positive. Remember, any rain which falls over the next week or so will easily dry out with the return of high pressure.

Will put up a video later!

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