The models remain persistent in producing some major heat this weekend over the Southwest Deserts up into the Central Valley with a couple of days at 110+ in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Fresno, Bakersfield up towards Redding.

Check out the GFS numbers for Saturday and Sunday afternoon within the Central Valley with a heights near 560dc.

Sat

Sun

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An interesting upper level low spinning off the Southern California coast will enhance the onshore flow and June gloom into the LA Basin with a late AM, PM burn back to the coast. The temperature spread looks large with 70s and 80s along the beaches to near 100 at Pasadena, 102-105 in Santa Clarita, Burbank, Santa Ana, into Riverside while Palm Springs could push 113.

Barstow will push 105-110, Baker 110-115 and Death Valley 120-125. Lows will hold at 80-85 in the desert overnight.

That coastal low is seen to push inland over the LA Basin this weekend according to the ECMWF, pushing the heat into the Plains with the return of 100s over Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart/850s for Sun, Mon, Tue. Notice the upper low pushing onshore, slicing the heat over SOCAL and trimming desert numbers back to nearer normal.

Sun

Mon

Tue

The Southeast looks to remain normal or below normal through next week with a trough overhead keeping the showers and storms going.

The amount of water now down over the Southeast and the look of the models over the next 10-15 days reinforces the likelihood that this summer won’t be a fraction of last year when it was sweltering. Remember Atlanta and many Southeastern cities experienced their hottest weather ever recorded? This summer looks to be on par with the cool summers of 2003 and 2004 and the Northeast looks likely to stay pretty cool as the water down over the Ohio Valley means Southwestern heat should be tempered before ever making it into the Northeast. When you’ve a lot of water down to the west of the Big Cities, you look to the Southeast for a heat source and if there’s a lot of water down here, then your likely in for a cooler, wetter summer with a small number of ‘hot days’.

As for the arid West into the Plains, well it’s going to be a long, dry and hot summer here!

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