There is no change to recent posts with regard to the continuation of warmth and sunshine across the UK and Ireland. This is hands down our best spell of weather this year so far and it’s not over. Those who have endured cloudier skies and cooler temperatures today, don’t fret, the pesky low between Scotland and Norway will drift away allowing heights to rebuild and that means a reintroduction of sunnier skies and warmer temperatures through the second half of this week into the weekend.

Though I still believe we have a good deal of warmth Saturday and Sunday, there is a little uncertainty as to how warm but no matter what way you slice it, the sun should be out for most and it’s another great opportunity to get outdoors, spend quality time with the family and perhaps light up the BBQ.

Though there has been some uncertainty back last week with my early June idea, I am happy with the way things have panned out through the first 7-10 days as I always said that with the next positive NAO, we should get our first SUSTAINED spell of warm, dry and sunny weather (where have you heard that before, eh). I’ve always thought a sustained spell of dry weather with warmer temperatures (which increases the evaporation rate of the soil) was important if we wanted a warmer, drier July. Nothing is written in stone and I could be wrong but I believe we’re on track for ‘potentially’ our best July in many years. Perhaps since the hot, dry July of 2006.

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As stated in the post and video yesterday, there is an interesting pattern setup right now with wet centred over Europe while we’re drying out. This may well show us where the positive and negative heights are going to set up as we head deeper into summer. I am hopeful of that anyway.

The breakdown of this current pattern is inevitable and the big question for me is when.

GFS and ECMWF Are Two Days Out With Return Of Unsettled Weather Next Week

Models keep us settled into next week with a flirt of system rains nudging up from Spain and France through the weekend but it appears to stay south of the South Coast, however a large area of low pressure looks set to really wind up over the North Atlantic this weekend with pressure dropping below 980mb. This appears to be the system which eventually breaks down our high pressure pattern with plenty of wet weather seen by the GFS to creep east Monday and Tuesday, eventually reaching the UK either late Monday or Tuesday.

While the GFS brings us the breakdown by late Monday or Tuesday, the ECMWF suggests the ridge stands firm longer, keeping us warm, dry and settled although it too sees the deepening low out over the Atlantic and eventually it’s coming our way but the question is when? Even by Wednesday heights are strong and so is the warmth at the surface right across Ireland and the UK.

Check this out for next Wednesday!

Here’s the ECM upper chart for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Plenty of warm sunshine across the board.

Tue

Wed

The fine, dry, settled weather will be enjoyed across the Low Countries, Denmark and parts of southern Scandinavia right through the weekend too.

Here’s why the breakdown is a given.

The second half of June I think will be cooler and at times unsettled but I’m looking for a return to a more positive NAO signal once again towards late June, which may very well set the stage for a warm to hot start to July. Long way off!

Despite our pattern turning unsettled, the good news is the rains look to ease down considerably over central Europe.

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