The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season begins June 1st and from what I am seeing in terms of the type of spring we’ve seen over North America and the sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic, there is reason to be concerned.

The Gulf of Mexico is currently below normal while the tropical Atlantic from Leeward Islands to the Senegal coast os above normal. This water temperature profile is strikingly similar to back in 2004 and 2005.

Other similarities between this year and 04 and 05 include cold spring’s across much of the US and very quiet severe weather season’s up until mid-May when heat began to build. We are seeing the ramp up in severe weather which started Wednesday and will really get going this weekend.

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So, why is the Gulf cold and Atlantic basin so warm? If you remember back to this time last year when we saw incredible warmth over North America, water temperatures were warmest well to the north of the deep tropics and that meant the focus of energy was further north which therefore COOLED the deep tropics. The greatest level of energy within tropical systems last year was further north than normal. Systems could never get going in the deep tropics last year, a lot due to dry air.

This year it’s opposite and we’ve seen abnormal cold push all the way into the Gulf of Mexico, keeping all the heat down to the south. This cold air blowing off the continent has cooled the Gulf waters and with the jet stream displaced much further south than normal, the focus of heat has all been concentrated down over the tropics, therefore heating the deep tropical Atlantic to above normal levels.

The thing is, the Gulf and western Caribbean are typically the warmest areas of the entire Atlantic basin and will warm very quickly. If the waters back out over the deeper Atlantic were still below normal, well this would have different consequences later down the road. In other words, the Gulf and Caribbean will warm fast to normal, perhaps even above normal levels and that means a complete runway for LONG TRACK, Cape Verde systems to run from Africa all the way to North America.

Deep tropical waters which need to heat up, dry the air out above but if it starts off warm, additional heating adds moisture to the atmosphere so, the tropical Atlantic this year looks primed and should be a very active long track or Cape Verde season this year.

Also remember that with a greater ‘build-up’ of heat over the tropics the greatly chance nature will want to expel excess heat away from the tropics and redistribute this into the cooler temperate regions and hurricane are the perfect way to do this. Afterall that is their main purpose. We saw this unfold back in 2004 and 2005 and the preseason setup unfortunately is striking similar to what we have now. We also saw a predominantly -NAO also and that appears to continue into June.

So, is there any sign of early development? As a matter a fact, the MJO pulse which is a tropical pulse which circles the planet and enhances tropical potential, is set to enter the western Atlantic early in June and some models are seeing something develop near to the Caribbean. I shall post on this in a day or two and look more closely at what the MJO is.

Stay tuned.

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Tags: atlantic hurricane season 2013, hurricane forecast 2013, hurricanes