Today and through this weekend, we have a very upside down temperature pattern over Europe with cold air rushing south in the west while hot hot rushes north in the East. In between it’s a messy picture. One of the main drivers of this seesaw pattern is the large and complex low that is diving south from the UK into Spain and Portugal. It already has a history of bringing wild, unseasonably cold weather with snow and it probably hasn’t ended it’s wild and wacky show just yet as it drops into Iberia. Unusually cold air is supported within this low and so temperatures in Madrid may struggle to get much above 10C or 50F today, the average by now is nearer 23C or 75F. Highs in oulying areas may hold in single figures, incredible for May 17.

The upper low is in the process of heading south and will divorce from the jet stream, the main steering flow aloft and that means it may spin away over top of Spain and Portugal keeping things cool and unsettled with showers, thunderstorms and longer spells of rain throughout this weekend, perhaps extending into next week. Not the kind of weather you would be hoping for if you’be taken a a holiday down there.

Amazingly, the GFS and other models have some snow over the higher terrain of northern Spain as well as the Alps.

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Be aware of very heavy, thundery rains over parts of France, the Low Countries into the Alpine region over the next 36-48 hours. Significant flooding is highly likely as warm air meets cool air. This boundary is very active indeed. Could even see some funnels or even tornadoes with this set up.

While the trough is being carved out deep into Southwest Europe, the ridge downwind is transporting Saharan heat north into the central and eastern half of the continent. Kiev and Moscow is enjoying some mid-summer heat as strong southerly winds blow. Highs today and into the weekend may push 30C or 88F in Moscow. The average is 19C or 66F. So, while parts of Spain is averaging 12-14C (20-25F) below normal, parts of western Russia is averaging 10-12C (15-20F) above normal.

Below is the 500mb vort max chart which shows the upper level energy and strong winds by Monday (72 hours)

Here is the ECMWF for Monday.

Tuesday

Here are tomorrow’s forecast high’s according to the GFS. Think the numbers over eastern parts of Europe are underdone. Moscow should see mid to upper 80s today, low, possibly mid-80s tomorrow. Check out the chill over Spain. Only a small area of 70s in the southern interior but a large area is only at 45-50F, incredible for mid-afternoon on May 18.

As for next week as the upper low cuts off and warmth from the continent slides over the UK and Ireland, check this out for Monday.

Even warmer Tuesday

A lot depends on how much sunshine there is but I think these temperatures too are a little conservative.

A lot can be said for the fickle nature of cut off lows. This can be a pesky time of year for them and once they split away from the steering flow aloft, they have nothing to move them along. They can spin away over a region for days, even over a week. Beneath them, very unsettled weather occurs.

For the past week I have showed you how this upper feature, if it gets far enough south and cuts off, could present us here in the UK with another taste of summer. Both GFS, ECMWF and other models continue to support this idea into early and mid next week, so get ready to heat up. As I’ve explained for upwards of a week now, the warmth building over central Europe looks to wrap around the northern side of the low and so 850 temps over the UK and Ireland are about to warm dramatically. Enough sunshine and we see the warmest day of the year so far. Last night’s post and video explains this more.

With the negative NAO however, we know this ain’t going to last. Another trough drops out of Iceland mid next week and so wind, rain and below normal temperatures will return.

As you will have noticed, there is a new video player now been added to the website. We are tweeking this to get it just right. Be sure to use full screen when watching the videos for the best quality.

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