After a wild day and night across the bulk of England with a covering of snow possible over the Pennines tonight, conditions are set to dramatically improve through tomorrow. Overall, conditions should improve from tomorrow towards the weekend but the ‘unsettled’ theme will continue as a trough hangs over our heads and keeps the cold air aloft. With more in the way of sunshine, there will be a continuation of sunshine and showers but no significant wind and rain event to speak of thankfully. Don’t be surprised to see increasingly colder nights with frost becoming more likely. Hefty showers packing wind, local downpours, hail and thunder more often than not die away once the sun goes down and the atmosphere cools. That clears the sky out allowing radiational cooling to kick in.
Next week remains a headache as the low dives south into Iberia but there are other lows which dive down from the north which look to stop building warmth over Europe from spreading west into the UK. The models are teasing us with warmth. We appear to sit at a crossroads between high pressure and warmth to our immediate east and low pressure and cool conditions to our west. It’s a question of what wins out.
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Given the trending towards negative with the NAO, the low and cool may win out but it could go either way. What I am pretty confident about is that even if we do manage to get a 24-48 hour taste of summer again, especially in more central and northern areas (low pressure is never far to the southeast of England), the cool, unsettled theme always comes back sooner rather than later.
Until we get a surge back into positive territory with the NAO, there is NO SUSTAINABLE WARMTH to be had.
The newest run of the ECM, if is very uncertain about the exact scenario this weekend, is currently showing a low centred over the Irish Sea. It’s a cut off low which is trying to pull warmth in towards Scotland during Saturday and by the time we reach Monday, it’s migrating south, allowing more warmth into the UK.
For about a week now, I’ve had the theory that the low dives south, carving the trough which in turn pumps heat from the Sahara up into central Europe. As the southbound low dives south it cuts off, therefore opening the door to warmth spreading west, bringing back a taste of summer to the UK. Call me stubborn but I am sticking to that being a real possibility. I like that idea and wills tick with it as it remains on the table and the model is close to that.
Sat
Mon
It was impressive to see mid afternoon readings of 5-7C across parts of Southern England and South Wales today. I’m wondering whether today may have been one of the coldest mid May afternoon’s for this part of the UK in many years. Temperatures are a solid 10-12C below normal.
While this month is certainly shaping up to be cooler than normal as I had forecasted since back in mid-April, it is however wetter than I thought and will be interesting to see how much rainfall we get over the next 4 weeks. That may or may not have impact on the early part of our summer.
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