I see more now jumping on board the warm idea for next week as it becomes obvious but don’t be fooled, a cooldown will follow as the NAO goes back negative once again. May continues to look cool overall according to the long range models and the fact the NAO is going back negative. This has been clearly stated way back since mid-April, May should be below average with both temperature and rainfall.

Even before we get to next week, it’s been snowing across the North and central Highlands but we could see it snow down to low levels around Inverness with a decent covering over the hills through the next 24 hours as a heavy precip bands sweeps west to east across Scotland. This band seperates cold air with mild and that collision is enhancing the wind and rain along it. While many areas may pick up 1-2 inches of rain, especially along the upslopes, the area from Aviemore to Caithness may see several inches of snow with mixing and perhaps wet snow for a time down near sea level.

Highs in the North areas won’t surpass 5C in places and even at 11am, Aviemore is sitting at just 3.5C. Factor in a strong west wind and it feels close to freezing all day today.

Here’s the latest GFS snow chart over the next 24 hours.

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As for points further south, it should make 14C south of the main rain band over the Borders while down across Southeast England, the high beneath sunny skies should approach 20C this afternoon.

Here’s today’s 850mb temperatures off the GFS.

As for early next week, a ridge extending from Africa all the way to Scandinavia will transport African warmth up through the UK and eventually into southern Norway, Sweden and possibly Finland as well as across the Low Countries, into Germany. Striong May sunshine, mild 850 temps and strong SSW winds will contribute to this welcome warmth. I am shooting for the first 25C in southern England Tuesday, possibly Wednesday, highs 20s from Paris up through Brussels, Eindhoven all the way to Berlin. Stockholm may see 22C Wednesday if not Thursday.

Next week should be the first true warm-up for Scotland with temperatures reaching 21C in Dumfries and Glasgow, perhaps 23C in Aviemore, maybe even 24C in Aboyne thanks to SW downsloping winds blowing off the hills west of Aviemore and the Grampians west of Aboyne.

Here’s the latest 500mb chart off the GFS out at 90 hrs (next Tuesday)

Surface

A fairly potent cold front will be edging into western parts of the UK, having already pushed through Ireland and Northern Ireland late Monday and it’s the strengthening SSW winds ahead of this boundary which should help shoot tem,peratures up Tuesday afternoon.

Here’s the 500mb off the ECMWF out at 102 hrs.

Surface

By Wednesday heavy rain and strong winds will be back over Scotland. This weather arrives into Ireland earlier but the heat should still prevail from the Midlands down into the South of England with highs possibly surpassing those of Tuesday of the ECMWF is correct but if the GFS is correct, the wet, unsettled and much cooler weather is back over SE England late Tuesday.

If the ECMWF is correct then London down into Kent may approach 27C Wednesday with potential for pop-up thunderstorms developing while the North of England up into Scotland and back west over Ireland, it may struggle to reach 12C with strong WNW winds.

Here’s the GFS and ECMWF surface chart for later Tuesday.

GFS

ECMWF

Beyond Wednesday, the front sweeps right across the UK and all will be back in a much cooler and more unsettled regime which takes us through a rough end to next week with some rather wet and windy conditions once again.

It looks as though the models are seeing the negative NAO signal return by late next week with a trough dropping back down as a ridge builds northwards to the west over the North Atlantic.

Check out the ECMWF upper chart for next Friday showing the active Atlantic pattern with two vigorous upper lows with well organised surface lows also.

Saturday

Here’s the latest NAO ensemble.

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