Although this weekend is somewhat of a wash out for many across the UK, particularly in the west, I guess the milder flow extending all the way down towards the Azores is helping raise spirts as we try to get out of what is one of our coldest spring’s on record.

For the Southeastern corner of England, folks here will escape most of the wet weather this weekend and the combo of strong April sunshine, a stiff but warming SW wind and 850mb temps near 10C, should boost temperatures tomorrow towards 21C (70F).

It looks to be a close call but I believe it’s possible. Elsewhere, expect a widespread 12-16C and it should feel a little muggy, given our bodies are so use to the cold.As for next week, a series of lows will sweep across the UK bringing plenty of wind and rain but towards late next week, there are signs of more warmer air returning, along with a surface high which means warm and sunny compared to warm, wet and windy like we have this weekend.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The GFS supports a strong surface high beneath an upper ridge which would allow plenty of SUNSHINE and with ‘sinking air’, temperatures would easily surpass those experienced tomorrow. If the GFS were to be correct, highs by next Saturday could be in the 22 to 24C range in the South of England, perhaps 21-22C in Scotland.

However, the ECMWF has a different solution with more of a trough over the UK, however I believe the GFS over the ECMWF, which did support warm and settled in earlier runs and I recon will return to it’s previous idea. The trouble is , the NAO has yet to go positive and will do this upcoming week.

As stated in previous posts, large scale pressure changes, often confuse the models but certainly if the NAO is expected to go as positive as the GFS ensemble is suggesting then I’ll be surprised if the current GFS idea isn’t correct and most likely, we’ll see the ECM go back to a warmer, more settled solution.Check this out.

It’s easy to be bias towards a certain model, especially the ECMWF given it’s superiority over other models but in this instance, I believe the GFS and it’s because of the NAO’s projection well into positive territory.

Trans-Atlantic Teleconnection Supports UK Warmth Next Weekend

Another backing to the warmer idea outwith model guidance for next weekend, is that excellent North America to Europe teleconnection. It worked well during the cold spell where cold and snow attacked the eastern US, then as I said, look out in days to come over the UK, cold and snow will attack us next.

The same can apply with warm surges. Just days ago we saw the first real warmth over the US East Coast, now that the ridge has drifted out into the Atlantic, look out 2-4 days later over the UK, that warmth is arriving now! Next week we have another big storm system that will roll across the US producing more heavy snow, severe weather and a huge temperature spread with significant cold in the West while warmth spreads across the East. Temperatures should push 32C again through midweek in the Mid-Atlantic, look out 2-4 days later in the UK once again and that would take us to next weekend.

Two bands of heavy rain accompanied by strong winds will sweep across Ireland and the UK through next week before ridging builds.

Here’s Tuesday

Wednesday

A showery regime kicks in beyond Wednesday with improving conditions towards the weekend.

Here’s Saturday’s precip chart.. no rain to be found over the UK?

Here’s why!

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]