There is lots of uncertainy showing up in the models and the battle is likely to only worsen through the upcoming week as the extreme blocking pattern reverses right at a time when the atmosphere is transitioning. I want to show you the big flip in the models between yesterday and today with next weekend and also want to show you the possibility of a cooler than normal May. The important aspect to our spring pattern as I keep saying is the amount of precip we see and not so much warm or cold.

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Check out the difference between yesterday abnd today’s run of the ECMWF for next Sunday.

Yest

Today

The thing that’s been a niggle in terms of potential warm spells in upcoming weeks, including next weekend has been the reluctance for the NAO returning to neutral or positive. Originally, the ensembles showed both indexes going well into the positive and therefore warmer weather was inevitable but with even the AO looking as though it may dip once again, this certainly suggests the real possibility of a cooler-than normal May.

Here’s the latest NAO & AO

AO

Be sure to watch the video below for a breakdown on what’s happening and the importance of the eastern US warm-up coming up.

If you, like myself and many out there are hoping for a warmer, drier summer, well for me, it’s all about precip and not so much temperature this spring.

My summer 2013 forecast will be released tomorrow, Monday 8 April.

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