It sure has been a wild February across a large chunk of the country with the recent focus being particularly on the southern plains extending north into the central plains and Lower Midwest. Wichita has just experienced it’s snowiest month while Kansas City saw it’s second snowiest February on record. Down in Amarillo and they endured their largest single day snow event on record and 3rd largest snowstorm on record, missing out by a mere 1.6 inches. While meteorological winter may end as of 12 midnight tonight, do not think that winter is over, in fact this pattern remains loaded and will fire more storms into a cold pool which holds firm over the central and eastern US. A cold pool which will be fluid enough to allow systems to track into the Northeast next week. There is multiple indicators on the table which suggest plenty more winter over the next two weeks.

Storminess Eases Multi-Year Drought

While this is exciting for all you winters weather lovers out there like myself and a pain for those wishing for warmer weather, this pattern has been very beneficial to the Plains and even the Southeast as the drought has eased some. By no means is it over, it is at least dented and as for the Southeast, a significant dent has been made with 8-12 inches of rain across a broad area over recent weeks stretching from Louisiana to the Carolinas.

According to TWC, February was record wettest in Macon, GA (12.87″), Columbus, GA (12.47″) and Charleston, SC (10.47″) and according to the National Drought Mitigation Centre, the worst category of drought across the Southeast has now been lifted thanks to recent rains produced by the warm sector of the recent back to back Plains blizzards.

The AO is tanking while the NAO appears to hold well into the negative and so with a block set up between Northern Canada and Greenland and that high pressure core back from Greenland towards Hudson Bay, along with a positive PNA, this favours an eastern trough with plenty of very cold air coming down the chute. As well as the trough and cold air continuing to take aim from the Great Lakes to Southeast, we will continue to see an active southern branch and ALL this means more storms and rumors of storm through the next 15 days at least.

Did you get a chance to read my earlier post on the latest Jamstec outlook for spring and summer for the US? If not have a look.

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Weekend Chill To Spoil Spring Break?

In recent days I have made mention of the trough and cold air that’s heading into the Deep South and Florida, that appears very much on the table still. Below I have GFS projected 850 and 2 metre temps for a chilly Monday morning all the way to central Florida.. Looks like warm clothes will need to get packed as well as the shorts. The good thing is that while it will be a dissapointing 55 degrees Sunday or Monday in Orlando, the chill down here never lasts!

Week Deep South/Florida Chill & Next Week’s Storm Prospects On The East Coast

There continues to be an active Pacific storm track which will push yet another system into the West Coast this weekend at the same time that trough drives cold air all the way into Florida. They key to this weekend into early next week will be whether that trough in the East stands firm, if it does then the system will be forced underneath and off the coast near South Carolina and so wind, rain and perhaps back edge snows will be the only issue for the Carolinas. However, if that trough was to lift out allowing slightly milder air north, then that would open the door for that system to track more east, perhaps reaching the coast nearer the Virginia Capes and once at the coast, it intensifies and lifts up the coast with enough cold air being fed down via a surface high up over Quebec.

Here’s the latest 500mv vort max chart for 72 hours or Sunday and here comes the trough delivering the cold air all the way into Florida!

As for the 850 temps by 66 hours or Sunday afternoon!

Below is the GFS 2 metre temperatures for Monday morning and you can see the cold air makes it into Florida. While it’s tough to say just how cold it may be and how far south the freezing line goes, there is the potential for a frost, even freezing all the way to New Orleans, Mobile and Orlando with this trough with the freezing line well out into the Gulf. However, a lot will depend upon how much wind we get with this cold air. Wind will thwart a drop to 32 degrees in such places as New Orleans and Orlando but it’s very much on the table.

As well as cold nights, highs will be stuck in the 40s in Atlanta, perhaps low to mid-50s in New Orleans, Mobile and all the way to Orlando Monday.

As for next week’s east coast storm prospects, here’s the 500mb vort max by 114 hrs and you can see the trough still over the Northeast and the system crossing the Northern Tier. I think this system will be tracking across country further to the south though.

By 144 hrs the energy and trough is lifting from the NE and that may allow this system to make it to the coast nearer the VA Capes and DC rather than South Carolina. The key is ultimately whether that trough in the northeast is fluid enough.

Aha, by 162 hrs, notice the trough is still strong enough to the north that the system, strong at that.. is exiting ESE off the Carolinas.. This would be a substantial storm for the Southeast but another dissapointment for the snow starved Mid-Atlantic.

It’s really all speculation at this time and until this makes it onto US soil and even across the Rockies, it is too much of a guessing game. This though is something well worth paying close attention to as the ‘potential’ with this thing is rather big anywhere from North Carolina to Maine with the possibility of a major, crippling snowstorm in the worst case.

This pattern supports more action beyond next week. Long way till spring this year!

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