Very briefly this morning I wanted to show you what the Jamstec long range model was showing for the upcoming spring (March through May) and the summer (June through August) was saying. If you’ve been reading in recent days I think you’ll have gathered that I’m clearly linking now the current ‘dry spell’ to a potential longer term pattern shift. One which should bring us hopefully a drier upcoming spring and if this occurs then I’m optimistic we can have a better summer which brings more in the way of sunshine, drier weather and therefore warmer temps.

Here’s what the latest Jamstec is saying.

Spring Precip

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Notice it has a drier than normal UK and I guess 50/50 precip over Europe. As for the US, it looks wet from the Ohio Valley eastwards. Dry from the Plains west unfortunately.

Spring Temps

As for spring temps, it would appear the model has a slightly above normal spring for the UK and this would probably come LATER in spring as I think March could well end slightly below average.

The US appears warmer than normal from Texas to Carolinas but average/slightly below norm up across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Cooler than normal from North Dakota to Southern California.

Summer Precip

Interestingly summer is quite solidly DRIER than normal over the UK and much of W, C Europe, perhaps reinforced by the onset of a La Nina perhaps around mid-summer.

The US appears drier than normal across much of the West although there’s a swath of wet from Texas up to the N Ohio Valley across to the Mid-Atlantic with average or slightly below over the Northeast.

Summer Temps

As for temps, the Jamstec appears to show warmer than normal over southern and central Britain extending south into France and Spain, cooler for Scotland and across the bulk of central and eastern Europe.

Will have more later!

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