This winter is not done yet Europe or the UK yet. In fact we may STILL have the worst snow event and cold to come believe it or not. The stringly negative NAO and AO, the fact that the atmosphere is nearing it’s most mature winter state and waters to the west are well above normal while the North Sea SST’s are colder, all lead to the possibility of a significant end game snow event which could be crippling. Remember back to February 2009 and the crippling snows which hit London and the Southeast? The record snows which hit Scotland in February 2010 and I recall a major snowstorm which hit I believe in March 2007 which dumped a foot of snow on Glasgow. When the pattern is right, late winter snowstorms have been the worst. It’s got a lot to do with the deeper cold within the atmosphere and the warmer than normal SST’s.

For days now I have been showing you what’s coming next week.With the NAO appearing to hold negative through the remainder of February, this suggests that even with a pullback for next week’s cold, perhaps 5-7 days later, the mild spell which returns is likely to be short lived with yet more cold returning. This is, like 2009-10, a winter which won’t wanna quit but bring on a major snowstorm and that might be enough to snap this winter. I am fairly confident that this winter will continue into March. The in like a lion and out like a lamb may apply to this year I think.

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Though I can’t tell you how long this next cold spell will last or how severe it will be, what I will say is that we will be right back to enduring days which struggle to hit 1 to 3C with some struggling to hit freezing with nasty windchills to contend with. We will see snow (possibly significant) and nights which dive below freezing. The question is, IF we get snow across a broad area, will it hold? Also.. we have been fortunate enough this winter that there has been no widespread bitterly cold nights. I wouldn’t rule that out even if we are in mid February and the days are growing longer, nights shorter.

The current GFS and ECMWF models show some snow over eastern parts of the UK with a covering over interior Belgium and Netherlands, however I believe that is underdone and the models aren’t seeing the potential. Will show you some of these charts over the next few days. Right now, any snow prediction is a pure guessing game. The key right now and this far out is getting the arrival of cold right, then the snow projections will follow.

Finally, here’s the latest ECMWF upper charts and 850 temps through next week.

Wed

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

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