While my recent posts have been focusing on the US with all the snow now settling into the Northeast, back here in the UK and we too have snow on the way with disruption likely during Sunday into Monday morning’s rushhour. The current cold pattern which has been pretty moderate over the past day or so will deepen into early next week as a southeast cutting low, not only brings snow but will pull colder air in from the east.

Let me break it down for you. A weather system sliding east across the Atlantic will slow as it approaches the UK and a low will develop near Ireland. In the meantime, a cold northerly upper flow will keep the cold air in place but it’s as the low develops and then cuts east, southeast across central and southern England, snow breaks out from the Midlands up through north Wales, northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. A SE to NW oriented front will see heavy snow break out along it but in the south of England, precip is likely to fall as rain.

Winds of course blow anti-clockwise around lows and with the track of this system being southeastwards from Ireland towards southern England, winds will pick up from an easterly direction and this will draw colder continental air into the UK. This will help keep the air nice and cold with no chance of rain rather than snow.

Right now it appears like Sunday into Sunday night will see the worst of the snow which will be heavy and with a stiff and cold east wind, blowing and drifting will make for treacherous driving, especially up over higher, exposed routes.

Here’s the latest GFS snow charts.

48 hrs (Sun)

66 hrs (Mon)

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So, the snow that starts during Sunday looks to continue through Monday with western parts of the UK seeing the worst. Accumulations are likely to range from a coating to as much as 3-6 inches with the highest totals always up over the hills. Some spots could see 10 inches.

Looking ahead at next week and it looks like the cold sticks around with an easterly flow reinforcing the chill and this should help keep the snow on the ground.

The ECMWF upper chart for Monday shows the low over the South of England and Channel and the cold air being drawn into the UK from the east.

By Tuesday, the low drifts off to the south and the cold begins to settle in over the fresh snow cover. We may see some impressively cold nights Tuesday, Wednesday, perhaps Thursday nights if high pressure settles in with the cold air.

Major Snowstorm Late Next Week?

While the Sunday-Monday system looks impressive and will likely blanket cities from Birmingham up through Manchester, Carlisle and Glasgow with 1-2 inches of snow, the GFS model suggests an even bigger and more disruptive snowstorm late next week.

Just look at this chart for Friday!!!

192 hrs (next Saturday 16th)

This would be the biggest snowstorm in quite a a long time if this proved right. The trouble is, this is very far out and could be blown completely out of the water even by early next week but it’s well worth keeping an eye on this pattern. This is the pattern, like we saw in February 2010 which delivered the worst of the snow during an overall long and tough winter. This ties in beautifully with what I’ve been saying all along about how February was deffinately the month to watch and may well be toughest of the three meteorological winter months.

Right now, the GFS as well as a few other models have TWO big snow events next week for the UK with cold air dominating. The mid-month period in particular was when I believed winter could bite pretty hard. I see no real return to mild anytime over the next 10 days and the worst of the entire winter may come within those next 10 days. Remember, we’ve had a decent amount of snow over many parts of the UK this winter and we’ve plenty more on the way. We’ve gotten off lightly so far when it comes to cold but I believe the worst of the cold will come with this increasingly snowy pattern.

The past week has been moderately cold, next week will be colder and MUCH SNOWIER!

Here’s the next 10 day temperature anomaly according to the GFS. The 8-16 day shows warmer air spreading back into the southern half of the UK, i don’t believe this given the -NAO/AO and the snow that’s coming next week.

Like I’ve said already, I believe the combination of snow and worst of the cold has yet to come, albeit we’re heading towards mid-February. Remember back to 2009-10. While the second half of December was snowy then cold and so too was January for about 10 days, the biggest snows of winter came during mid-February with a lot of cold with it. March also saw some very tough conditions and this is shaping up to do the same.

Finally, here’s the next 10 days off the CFSv2. Looking cold right? Think it may be colder than this suggests.

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