[warning] EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS: PORTLAND, ME 23-26″, BOSTON, MA 24-28″, PROVIDENCE, RI 24-25″, HARTFORD, CT 23-26″, NEW YORK, NY 12-18″, PHILADELPHIA, PA 1-4″ [/warning]

Northeast: Playground For Extreme Weather

Geography plays a huge role in making the Northeastern US a wild place to live sometimes. The climate is classified as MARITIME CONTINENTAL. Despite being situated right on the Atlantic Ocean, temperatures can go to the extreme with direct arctic discharges in winter to searing blowtorch southwest winds and amazon rainforest-like humidity in summer. The Atlantic often adds fuel to winter storms and to hurricanes or rainstorms etc. Mighty waves, such as those seen in past Nor’easter’s or hurricanes visit the coast, tearing up boardwalks, beaches and even homes from time to time. Winds can be fierce off the ocean, with no frictional drag to slow them as they race into the Big Cities from DC to Boston.

Searing summer heat, stifling humidity, fierce arctic winds, hurricanes, tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, wind storms and of course snowstorms all make a visit to this region, one of the most populated corners on earth, every once in a while and sometimes, extreme weather can visit quite frequently.

It always amazes me how the Northeast corridor can get some of the wildest weather on the planet. Think about it for a minute, back last summer there was plenty of heat with yet more 100-degree days from Washington DC up to New York City, big rainstorms, severe thunderstorms, then it was Sandy, a once-in-a-lifetime Superstorm with the deepest central pressure ever recorded in the region, that was just back last October and now you’ve got this impending blizzard. This region with some 150 million people crammed into it is one heck of a playground for wild weather.

Meteorology Behind It All

This storm will break records for snow over parts of New England when all is said and done. Do not be surprised if somewhere picks up 40 or more inches of snow over the next 36 hours. Boston’s 27-inch record during the Presidents Day Blizzard in 2003 could be in jeopardy. The Bay City’s mass transit system and all roads have now shut down..

The storm is now getting it’s act together and as it heads north up the coast, it’s deepening and intensifying the rate in which warm, moist GULF air is being transported north. While this is happening, arctic air over Canada is also being pulled in from the northwest, so this infusion of conflicting warm-cold air as well as very moist air is going to drive an all out blizzard tonight. All the important properties which will help pressures fall towards the low 970s in mb tonight drive this storm with the windfield tightening, sharpening the thermal gradient as warm, moist air streams north with lightning now being reported offshore, a sign of an intensifying storm.

Another impirtant factor with this situation is the warmer-than-normal waters off the Northeast coast. The adds fuel to the fire and will aid in driving higher concentrations of moisture into the cold air coming out of Ontario and Quebec. This imbalance increases upward motion within the atmosphere as well as winds. As we progress into the dark hours and temperatures cool, so the banding features circulating around the low, intensify the snowfall rates. These intense snow bands will contain the strongest winds, heaviest snow rates of possibly 2-5 inches PER HOUR and this incredible instability will create thundersnow.

Everything you want to come together, is coming together with phasing of both northern and southern branch energy. Pressure will drop from 996-ish this afternoon towards 972mb overnight tonight off Cape Cod. This tightening infuses all key elements, bringing on a fierce wind and snowstorm which will create the ultimate blizzard for southern New England. tonight through tomorrow morning.

This chart off Weatherbell.com shows just how abnormally warm the waters are off the East Coast.

Stretch From Hartford To Portland Could See Over 2 Feet Of Snow!

The corridor between Hartford and Portland, ME look best for totals of over 2 FEET, areas within the stretch may surpass 3 feet but factor in a howling northeasterly gale or severe gale with gusts reaching hurricane-force, you’ve got a crippling event with widespread power outages, entire communities cut off and not to mention damage from weight of snow, wind, wave etc.

So where can we expect the rain and snow? This chart off weather.com shows this well.

Here’s the weather channel’s expected snow totals..

Could This Be The Biggest Snowstorm In Boston History?

Boston picked an incredible 27-inches of snow during the February 2003 Blizzard, one of the first major blizzards I’ve covered over the Northeast. This storm suggests at least 24 inches for the Boston area and there is a chance at least, that the 27 inch record could well be challenged today into tomorrow. The below AccuWeather graphic shows Boston’s biggest snowstorms. Even if this storm doesn’t top the list, it is likely to be within the top-5 biggest snowstorms in Boston history. As well as Boston perhaps not breaking the record, surrounding suburbs may collect OVER 30 INCHES from this storm, a lot depends upon where those most concentrated bands set up and feed high concentrations of moisture into the cold air. These bands are often very narrow, only miles in width but can bring thundersnow with snow rates of 2-5 inches per hour. If Boston gets under one of these bands for long enough then the 2003 record could be a risk.

Coastal Flooding, Beach Erosion & Wind Damage All A Concern

While a lot of focus is on snow, wind and blizzard conditions, the fierce northeast winds will drive a 1-3 foot storm surge onshore along the Northeast coast from Maine to New Jersey. Low lying communities may see coastal flooding and the beaches up and down this coast may experience significant beach erosion. Huge 10-20 breakers may also slam into the coast, causing that beach erosion and lets not forget that exposure to some beaches along the Jersey shore following Sandy. There is tremendous forcing of wind over the water. All this energy piles onshore.

As for power outages. The combination of heavy wet snow with snow rates of 1-3, locally 3-5 potentially within the most concentrated bands, along with 40-50 mph winds, even 50-100 miles inland, WILL cause bigtime power loss issues. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is 2-4 million without power by 9am Saturday.

On the immediate coast, winds may blow sustained at 50 with gusts well over 60, 70 mph. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations along the Maine and Massachusetts coast with gusts topping 75 to 80 mph. These kinds of wind gusts will cause damage to trees, powerlines and property that’s for sure. The strong winds blowing with snow depths over a foot across a broad area stretching from NYC to southern Maine will make for towering drifts, perhaps 10 feet in exposed areas.

The fully fledged blizzard that envelops the Northeast during tonight will ultimately shutdown this region by tomorrow morning. Effects from this storm will extend into early next week with power still out, communities cut off etc.

Progress Of A Coastal Monster According To The GFS Model

6 hrs

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24 hrs

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Tags: blizzard of 2013, February 2013 Blizzard, Nemo, Northeast blizzard 2013, Northeast Snowstorm 2013